FOSL
Fossil Group, Inc.
FOSL offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has a slight edge over FOSL overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
FOSL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
FOSL's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
FOSL PE Valuation
FOSL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE's PE is in its cheap range at 18x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 30x, in its fair range.
FOSL Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for FOSL to show an outlook.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
FOSL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.32 | +$0.96 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.27 | -$0.15 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.13 | +$0.68 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.45 | +$0.49 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.28 | +$1.04 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.12 | +$1.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.81 | +$0.85 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.94 | +$1.06 |
FOSL is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.32 per share over the past year, against $3.00 at its worst in late 2023.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE has the edge over FOSL on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
FOSL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $271.2M | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $209.7M | -4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $224.8M | -3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $280.5M | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $270.2M | -6.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $220.4M | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | $233.3M | -8.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $342.3M | -19% |
FOSL's revenue has slid since its 2019 peak: $271M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.3% | +17 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.5% | -2.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +8.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | +5.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -8% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9% | +17 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.9% | +8.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -4.8% | +0.9 points |
FOSL has the edge over NKE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE has the edge over FOSL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE's operating margin was 8.2% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
FOSL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $428K | +$22.9M |
| Q2 2026 | -$10.1M | -217% |
| Q1 2026 | -$22.7M | +$37.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $14.1M | -51% |
| Q3 2025 | -$22.5M | +$1.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $8.6M | -76% |
| Q1 2025 | -$60.6M | -$59.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $28.5M | -40% |
FOSL's free cash flow was −$18M over the past year, against −$46M the year before.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE has the edge over FOSL on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
FOSL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.6% | +2.1M shares |
| 1 year | +17% | +8.8M shares |
| 3 years | +17% | +8.7M shares |
| 5 years | +16% | +8.4M shares |
| Available history | +22% | +10.9M shares |
FOSL has 61M diluted shares, up 17% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $3,000 |
| Q4 2023 | $530,000 |
| Q3 2023 | — |
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has the edge over FOSL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
FOSL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 22.0x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 9.8x | High |
| Q4 2022 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q3 2022 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2022 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2022 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2021 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
FOSL's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.9 years a year ago.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE has the edge over FOSL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
FOSL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 76.5 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 80.5 | Overbought |
FOSL's weekly RSI is 76 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 81 (overbought).
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
FOSL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | FOSL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
FOSL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE is trading at 18x earnings, in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
FOSL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $7.11 | 23% above |
| 20 week MA | $5.78 | 51% above |
| 50 week MA | $4.83 | 81% above |
| 100 week MA | $3.34 | 162% above |
| 200 week MA | $2.63 | 232% above |
FOSL has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
FOSL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $7.74 | $9.19 | +19% |
| 2021 | $9.19 | $10.2 | +11% |
| 2022 | $10.2 | $3.98 | -61% |
| 2023 | $3.98 | $1.46 | -63% |
| 2024 | $1.46 | $1.89 | +29% |
| 2025 | $1.89 | $3.85 | +104% |
| 2026 YTD | $3.85 | $8.74 | +127% |
FOSL has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.