FOSL
Fossil Group, Inc.
FOSL has the edge over NIO overall, supported by stronger modeled upside.
NIO
NIO Inc.
NIO has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
FOSL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
FOSL's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
NIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable |
NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
FOSL PE Valuation
FOSL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NIO PE Valuation
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
FOSL Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for FOSL to show an outlook.
NIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect NIO's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
FOSL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.32 | +$0.96 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.27 | -$0.15 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.13 | +$0.68 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.45 | +$0.49 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.28 | +$1.04 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.12 | +$1.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.81 | +$0.85 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.94 | +$1.06 |
FOSL is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.32 per share over the past year, against $3.00 at its worst in late 2023.
NIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.29 | +$1.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.60 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.59 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.74 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.76 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.66 | +$0.21 |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.61 | +$0.32 |
NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.
FOSL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $271.2M | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $209.7M | -4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $224.8M | -3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $280.5M | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $270.2M | -6.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $220.4M | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | $233.3M | -8.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $342.3M | -19% |
FOSL's revenue has slid since its 2019 peak: $271M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.3% | +17 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.5% | -2.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +8.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | +5.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -8% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9% | +17 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.9% | +8.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -4.8% | +0.9 points |
FOSL has the edge over NIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +112% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B | -2.1% |
NIO has the edge over FOSL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | +24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +52 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -26% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | -28% | -2.6 points |
NIO's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
FOSL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $428K | +$22.9M |
| Q2 2026 | -$10.1M | -217% |
| Q1 2026 | -$22.7M | +$37.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $14.1M | -51% |
| Q3 2025 | -$22.5M | +$1.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $8.6M | -76% |
| Q1 2025 | -$60.6M | -$59.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $28.5M | -40% |
FOSL's free cash flow was −$18M over the past year, against −$46M the year before.
NIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | +$391.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.1B | +$73.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | -$391.3M | -386% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.2B | +$337.9M |
NIO has the edge over FOSL on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
FOSL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.6% | +2.1M shares |
| 1 year | +17% | +8.8M shares |
| 3 years | +17% | +8.7M shares |
| 5 years | +16% | +8.4M shares |
| Available history | +22% | +10.9M shares |
FOSL has 61M diluted shares, up 17% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $3,000 |
| Q4 2023 | $530,000 |
| Q3 2023 | — |
NIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +15.6M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +267M shares |
| 3 years | +51% | +844M shares |
| 5 years | +60% | +933M shares |
| Available history | +143% | +1.5B shares |
NIO has the edge over FOSL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NIO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
FOSL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 22.0x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 9.8x | High |
| Q4 2022 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q3 2022 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2022 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2022 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2021 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
FOSL's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.9 years a year ago.
NIO Net Leverage
NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
FOSL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 76.5 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 80.5 | Overbought |
FOSL's weekly RSI is 76 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 81 (overbought).
NIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.9 | Oversold |
NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
FOSL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | FOSL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
FOSL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
FOSL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $7.11 | 23% above |
| 20 week MA | $5.78 | 51% above |
| 50 week MA | $4.83 | 81% above |
| 100 week MA | $3.34 | 162% above |
| 200 week MA | $2.63 | 232% above |
FOSL has the edge over NIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.36 | 9.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.01 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.81 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.85 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.03 | 49% below |
NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.
FOSL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $7.74 | $9.19 | +19% |
| 2021 | $9.19 | $10.2 | +11% |
| 2022 | $10.2 | $3.98 | -61% |
| 2023 | $3.98 | $1.46 | -63% |
| 2024 | $1.46 | $1.89 | +29% |
| 2025 | $1.89 | $3.85 | +104% |
| 2026 YTD | $3.85 | $8.74 | +127% |
FOSL has the edge over NIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.42 | $45.8 | +1791% |
| 2021 | $45.8 | $30.5 | -33% |
| 2022 | $30.5 | $11.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $9.07 | -17% |
| 2024 | $9.07 | $4.48 | -51% |
| 2025 | $4.48 | $5.10 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.10 | $3.05 | -40% |
NIO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1791% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.