FERG
Ferguson plc
FERG has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW has the edge over FERG overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
FERG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
FERG's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
FERG PE Valuation
FERG has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
FERG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect FERG's revenue to grow, with its earnings and profitability holding steady.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
RDW has the edge over FERG on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
FERG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $12.52 | +18% |
| Q3 2026 | $10.63 | +7.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.45 | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.55 | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.49 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.88 | +19% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.32 | +9.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.02 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.13 | -5.5% |
FERG has the edge over RDW on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
FERG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $9B | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.8B | +3% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.5B | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.5B | +9.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.2B | +5.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.5B | +6.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.6B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.9B | +3% |
FERG's revenue has picked up after three years of holding roughly level: $9B last quarter, up 10% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.8% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 10% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | +2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9.4% | +0.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 6% | -1.2 points |
FERG has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $109M last quarter, up 5.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
FERG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $648M | +108% |
| Q2 2026 | -$198M | -142% |
| Q1 2026 | $680M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $471M | +82% |
| Q4 2025 | $312M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $471M | +83% |
| Q2 2025 | $605M | +5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $259M | +26% |
FERG has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
FERG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -100K shares |
| 1 year | -1.4% | -2.7M shares |
| 3 years | -5.2% | -10.7M shares |
| 5 years | -13% | -28.8M shares |
| Available history | -15% | -33.4M shares |
FERG has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $202M |
| Q1 2026 | $236M |
| Q4 2025 | $189M |
| Q4 2025 | $208M |
| Q3 2025 | $189M |
| Q2 2025 | $251M |
| Q1 2025 | $252M |
FERG spent $627M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 30% from the year before.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
FERG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
FERG's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.2 years a year ago.
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
FERG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 54.4 | Neutral |
FERG's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 54 (neutral).
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
FERG PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | FERG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
FERG has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
FERG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $231.5 | 10% above |
| 20 week MA | $232.2 | 9.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $237.2 | 7.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $219.8 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $199.1 | 28% above |
FERG has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
FERG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $91.3 | $118.5 | +30% |
| 2021 | $118.5 | $175.9 | +48% |
| 2022 | $175.9 | $124.9 | -29% |
| 2023 | $124.9 | $193.1 | +55% |
| 2024 | $193.1 | $175.1 | -9.3% |
| 2025 | $175.1 | $228.7 | +31% |
| 2026 YTD | $228.7 | $254.9 | +11% |
FERG has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 11% so far in 2026.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW has the edge over FERG on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.