FBNC
First Bancorp
FBNC offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over FBNC overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
FBNC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
FBNC's revenue and profitability are currently strong. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like FBNC.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
FBNC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.4x | $37.47 | -42% |
| Fair | 13x | $51.23 | -21% |
| Forward | 13x | $64.80 | — |
| Current | 16x | $64.80 | — |
| Expensive | 20x | $79.73 | +23% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
FBNC has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
FBNC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for FBNC, but weaker profitability.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over FBNC on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
FBNC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.82 | +21% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.97 | +67% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.22 | +38% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.93 | +39% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.68 | +46% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.38 | -4% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.34 | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.11 | -24% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.84 | -27% |
FBNC earned $3.97 per share over the past year, up 67% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over FBNC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
FBNC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $129.9M | +45% |
| Q2 2026 | $127.3M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $122.3M | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $83.9M | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $89.6M | -7.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $111M | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $105.8M | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $65.7M | -32% |
FBNC's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $130M last quarter, up 45% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +21 points |
| Q2 2026 | 50% | +4.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 48% | +4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +9.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 29% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +6.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 44% | +9.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | -28 points |
FBNC has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over FBNC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
FBNC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $98M | +103% |
| Q2 2026 | $65.5M | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $59.3M | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $54M | -21% |
| Q3 2025 | $48.2M | +27% |
| Q2 2025 | $44.3M | -49% |
| Q1 2025 | $52.4M | +$74.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $68.2M | +54% |
FBNC has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
FBNC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +18.4K shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -87.8K shares |
| 3 years | +0.5% | +195K shares |
| 5 years | +45% | +12.9M shares |
| Available history | +39% | +11.7M shares |
FBNC has 41M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $2.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $5.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $1,000 |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $992,000 |
| Q4 2022 | — |
FBNC spent $7M buying back its own shares over the past year.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over FBNC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
FBNC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
FBNC has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
FBNC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 65.3 | Neutral |
FBNC's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 65 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
FBNC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | FBNC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 13x | 25% above |
| PE % | 71 | 63 | 8 pts above |
FBNC is trading at 16x earnings, a 25% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over FBNC on valuation relative to its sector.
FBNC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $62.9 | 3.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $63.6 | 1.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $59.8 | 8.4% above |
| 100 week MA | $52.7 | 23% above |
| 200 week MA | $44.0 | 47% above |
FBNC has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
FBNC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $40.1 | $33.5 | -16% |
| 2021 | $33.5 | $45.1 | +35% |
| 2022 | $45.1 | $43.4 | -3.9% |
| 2023 | $43.4 | $37.0 | -15% |
| 2024 | $37.0 | $44.4 | +20% |
| 2025 | $44.4 | $52.1 | +17% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.1 | $64.8 | +24% |
FBNC has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.