F
Ford Motor Company
F has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
VAC has a slight edge over F overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
F Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
F's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
VAC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
VAC's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.
F PE Valuation
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
VAC PE Valuation
VAC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
F Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect F's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
VAC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
VAC has the edge over F on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
F Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.78 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.97 | -270% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.87 | -340% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.55 | -224% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.06 | -241% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16 | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.78 | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.25 | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.46 | +35% |
F has the edge over VAC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
VAC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.67 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$7.00 | -257% |
| Q2 2026 | -$9.31 | -240% |
| Q1 2026 | -$9.66 | -265% |
| Q4 2025 | -$8.84 | -258% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.45 | -16% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.64 | +56% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.85 | +7.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.61 | -11% |
VAC has swung to a loss: it lost $7.00 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
F Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $49.5B | -2% |
| Q2 2026 | $48.3B | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $43.3B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.9B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $50.5B | +9.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $50.2B | +5% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.7B | -5% |
| Q4 2024 | $48.2B | +4.9% |
F's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $49.5B last quarter, down 2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +4.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -25% | -28 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1% | -2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5% | +3.1 points |
F's operating margin was 2.9% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
VAC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +8.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +5.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +4.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | -3.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2B | +9.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +0.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | +11% |
VAC has the edge over F on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | +8.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +3.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | -34% | -42 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6% | -8.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9% | 0 points |
| Q1 2025 | 11% | -0.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.8% | -0.8 points |
VAC has the edge over F on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
F Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | -40% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | -54% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -157% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +108% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.3B | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.2B | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | +$2.6B |
| Q4 2024 | $530M | +169% |
F has the edge over VAC on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
VAC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $116M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $66M | +$134M |
| Q1 2026 | -$12M | -$6M |
| Q4 2025 | -$6M | -107% |
| Q3 2025 | $51M | -12% |
| Q2 2025 | -$68M | -500% |
| Q1 2025 | -$6M | +$7M |
| Q4 2024 | $86M | +51% |
VAC still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $164M over the past year.
F Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.2% | +89M shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +28M shares |
| 3 years | +0.6% | +26M shares |
| 5 years | +1% | +40M shares |
| Available history | +1.8% | +72M shares |
F has the edge over VAC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $311M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $150M |
F spent $311M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 107% from the year before.
VAC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1% | +400K shares |
| 1 year | +11% | +3.7M shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -4.7M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -5.1M shares |
| Available history | -13% | -5.9M shares |
VAC has 39M diluted shares, up 11% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $25M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $36M |
| Q4 2024 | $11M |
VAC spent $25M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 47% from the year before.
F Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
F has the edge over VAC on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
VAC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 25.8x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q3 2024 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2024 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2024 | 2.9x | Moderate |
VAC's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.0 years a year ago.
F Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.6 | Oversold |
F's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
VAC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 53.9 | Neutral |
VAC's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 54 (neutral).
F PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | F | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
VAC PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | VAC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
VAC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
F Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.2 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.3 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.4 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.1 | 2% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.1 | 1.4% below |
F is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.4% below its 200-week average.
VAC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $109.2 | 5.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $107.2 | 7.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $84.4 | 36% above |
| 100 week MA | $77.9 | 48% above |
| 200 week MA | $90.2 | 28% above |
VAC has the edge over F on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
F Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.36 | $8.86 | -5.3% |
| 2021 | $8.86 | $20.3 | +129% |
| 2022 | $20.3 | $11.4 | -44% |
| 2023 | $11.4 | $12.2 | +7.3% |
| 2024 | $12.2 | $10.0 | -18% |
| 2025 | $10.0 | $13.3 | +33% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.3 | $11.9 | -11% |
F's yearly returns have swung widely, from +129% in 2021 to −44% in 2022. It's down 11% so far in 2026.
VAC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $130.6 | $134.1 | +2.7% |
| 2021 | $134.1 | $166.5 | +24% |
| 2022 | $166.5 | $134.1 | -19% |
| 2023 | $134.1 | $84.9 | -37% |
| 2024 | $84.9 | $90.6 | +6.8% |
| 2025 | $90.6 | $58.6 | -35% |
| 2026 YTD | $58.6 | $115.0 | +96% |
VAC has the edge over F on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.