VAC

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation

52
Fundamentals42/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential58/ 100
Risk potential25/ 100

VAC lost money over the past year, so it has no meaningful PE right now. Analysts expect earnings to recover and profitability to improve.

VAC Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Under pressure
Healthy
Weak

VAC's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.

VAC PE Valuation

VAC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

VAC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for VAC, with profitability improving.

VAC Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+35%$155.79
Downside-25%$85.75

Calculated from the latest close: $114.99 on Nov 12.

VAC's one-year upside scenario is somewhat larger than its downside: +35% against −25%.

VAC Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $6.28Q1 2024: $5.44Q2 2024: $4.25Q3 2024: $5.28Q4 2024: $5.61Q1 2025: $5.85Q2 2025: $6.64Q3 2025: $4.45Q4 2025: $-8.84Q1 2026: $-9.66Q2 2026: $-9.31Q3 2026: $-7.00Forward: $9.67
Q4 2023: $6.28Q1 2024: $5.44Q2 2024: $4.25Q3 2024: $5.28Q4 2024: $5.61Q1 2025: $5.85Q2 2025: $6.64Q3 2025: $4.45Q4 2025: $-8.84Q1 2026: $-9.66Q2 2026: $-9.31Q3 2026: $-7.00Forward: $9.67
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$9.67—
Q3 2026-$7.00-257%
Q2 2026-$9.31-240%
Q1 2026-$9.66-265%
Q4 2025-$8.84-258%
Q3 2025$4.45-16%
Q2 2025$6.64+56%
Q1 2025$5.85+7.5%
Q4 2024$5.61-11%

VAC has swung to a loss: it lost $7.00 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.

VAC Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $1.2BQ1 2024: $1.2BQ2 2024: $1.1BQ3 2024: $1.3BQ4 2024: $1.3BQ1 2025: $1.2BQ2 2025: $1.2BQ3 2025: $1.3BQ4 2025: $1.3BQ1 2026: $1.3BQ2 2026: $1.3BQ3 2026: $1.4B
Q4 2023: $1.2BQ1 2024: $1.2BQ2 2024: $1.1BQ3 2024: $1.3BQ4 2024: $1.3BQ1 2025: $1.2BQ2 2025: $1.2BQ3 2025: $1.3BQ4 2025: $1.3BQ1 2026: $1.3BQ2 2026: $1.3BQ3 2026: $1.4B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$1.4B+8.2%
Q2 2026$1.3B+5.9%
Q1 2026$1.3B+4.8%
Q4 2025$1.3B-0.3%
Q3 2025$1.3B-3.2%
Q2 2025$1.2B+9.3%
Q1 2025$1.2B+0.4%
Q4 2024$1.3B+11%

VAC's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $1.4B last quarter, up 8.2% from the same quarter a year ago.

VAC Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $57MQ1 2024: −$13MQ2 2024: $17MQ3 2024: $58MQ4 2024: $86MQ1 2025: −$6MQ2 2025: −$68MQ3 2025: $51MQ4 2025: −$6MQ1 2026: −$12MQ2 2026: $66MQ3 2026: $116M
Q4 2023: $57MQ1 2024: −$13MQ2 2024: $17MQ3 2024: $58MQ4 2024: $86MQ1 2025: −$6MQ2 2025: −$68MQ3 2025: $51MQ4 2025: −$6MQ1 2026: −$12MQ2 2026: $66MQ3 2026: $116M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$116M+127%
Q2 2026$66M+$134M
Q1 2026-$12M-$6M
Q4 2025-$6M-107%
Q3 2025$51M-12%
Q2 2025-$68M-500%
Q1 2025-$6M+$7M
Q4 2024$86M+51%

VAC still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $164M over the past year.

VAC Total Shares

Q4 2023: 44MQ1 2024: 42MQ2 2024: 42MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 42MQ2 2025: 42MQ3 2025: 35MQ4 2025: 35MQ1 2026: 35MQ2 2026: 38MQ3 2026: 39M
Q4 2023: 44MQ1 2024: 42MQ2 2024: 42MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 42MQ2 2025: 42MQ3 2025: 35MQ4 2025: 35MQ1 2026: 35MQ2 2026: 38MQ3 2026: 39M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+1%+400K shares
1 year+11%+3.7M shares
3 years-11%-4.7M shares
5 years-12%-5.1M shares
Available history-13%-5.9M shares

VAC has 39M diluted shares, up 11% from a year ago.

VAC Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 2.8xQ1 2024: 2.9xQ2 2024: 3.2xQ3 2024: 3.2xQ4 2024: 3.1xQ1 2025: 3.1xQ2 2025: 3.1xQ3 2025: 3.1xQ3 2026: 25.8x
Q4 2023: 2.8xQ1 2024: 2.9xQ2 2024: 3.2xQ3 2024: 3.2xQ4 2024: 3.1xQ1 2025: 3.1xQ2 2025: 3.1xQ3 2025: 3.1xQ3 2026: 25.8x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 202625.8xHigh
Q3 20253.1xElevated
Q2 20253.1xElevated
Q1 20253.1xElevated
Q4 20243.1xElevated
Q3 20243.2xElevated
Q2 20243.2xElevated
Q1 20242.9xModerate

VAC's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.0 years a year ago.

VAC Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI63.3Neutral
Stochastic53.9Neutral

VAC's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 54 (neutral).

VAC PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricVACSector medianRelative
PEN/A18x—

VAC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

VAC Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$109.25.3% above
20 week MA$107.27.3% above
50 week MA$84.436% above
100 week MA$77.948% above
200 week MA$90.228% above

VAC has climbed back above all five of its weekly moving averages, and it's now 28% above its 200-week average.

VAC Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$130.6$134.1+2.7%
2021$134.1$166.5+24%
2022$166.5$134.1-19%
2023$134.1$84.9-37%
2024$84.9$90.6+6.8%
2025$90.6$58.6-35%
2026 YTD$58.6$115.0+96%

VAC is up 96% so far in 2026, after finishing lower in three of the previous six years.

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