F
Ford Motor Company
F offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
TM
Toyota Motor Corporation
TM has the edge over F overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
F Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
F's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
TM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
TM's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
F PE Valuation
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
TM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.9x | $175 | -16% |
| Current | 9.4x | $210 | — |
| Fair | 10x | $225 | +7.5% |
| Expensive | 13x | $290 | +38% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TM's PE is 9.4x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
F Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect F's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect TM's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
F Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.78 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.97 | -270% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.87 | -340% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.55 | -224% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.06 | -241% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16 | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.78 | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.25 | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.46 | +35% |
F has swung to a loss: it lost $1.97 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
TM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $22.31 | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $18.69 | -17% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.86 | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $22.19 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $20.41 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.57 | -1.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $24.03 | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $19.86 | +11% |
TM has the edge over F on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
F Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $49.5B | -2% |
| Q2 2026 | $48.3B | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $43.3B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.9B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $50.5B | +9.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $50.2B | +5% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.7B | -5% |
| Q4 2024 | $48.2B | +4.9% |
F's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $49.5B last quarter, down 2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +4.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -25% | -28 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1% | -2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5% | +3.1 points |
F's operating margin was 2.9% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
TM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $85.9B | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $80.4B | +3.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $85.9B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.6B | +8.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.8B | +3.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $77.5B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $77.7B | +2.9% |
| Q3 2024 | $71.7B | +0.1% |
TM has the edge over F on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.9% | -1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.5% | -4.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.8% | -1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.8% | -3.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.5% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9% | -1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.8% | -4.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 10% | -2.5 points |
TM has the edge over F on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
F Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | -40% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | -54% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -157% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +108% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.3B | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.2B | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | +$2.6B |
| Q4 2024 | $530M | +169% |
F has the edge over TM on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
TM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$4.8B | -221% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | +153% |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.1B | +$320.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.3B | +$610.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $4B | +$4B |
| Q1 2025 | $592.5M | +$592.7M |
| Q4 2024 | -$3.4B | +$1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.9B | -$637.3M |
TM has burned cash in most quarters: −$7.7B over the past year, against −$711M the year before.
F Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.2% | +89M shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +28M shares |
| 3 years | +0.6% | +26M shares |
| 5 years | +1% | +40M shares |
| Available history | +1.8% | +72M shares |
F has 4.1B diluted shares, up 0.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $311M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $150M |
F spent $311M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 107% from the year before.
TM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -6.1% | -79.5M shares |
| 1 year | -6.1% | -79.4M shares |
| 3 years | -9.7% | -132M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -174M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -202M shares |
TM has the edge over F on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $22.9B |
| Q1 2026 | $50,144 |
| Q4 2025 | $50,144 |
| Q3 2025 | $37,608 |
| Q2 2025 | $250.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $835.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $891.9M |
| Q3 2024 | $5.5B |
TM spent $22.9B buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
F Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
F has the edge over TM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.1x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.7x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q3 2024 | 3.4x | Elevated |
TM's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.7 years a year ago.
F Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.6 | Oversold |
F's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
TM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 77.3 | Neutral |
TM's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 77 (neutral).
F PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | F | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
TM PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.4x | 18x | 48% below |
| PE % | 35 | 47 | 12 pts below |
TM is trading at 9.4x earnings, a 48% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
F Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.2 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.3 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.4 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.1 | 2% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.1 | 1.4% below |
F is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.4% below its 200-week average.
TM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $196.3 | 6.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $191.3 | 9.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $201.5 | 4% above |
| 100 week MA | $194.5 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $187.8 | 12% above |
TM has the edge over F on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
F Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.36 | $8.86 | -5.3% |
| 2021 | $8.86 | $20.3 | +129% |
| 2022 | $20.3 | $11.4 | -44% |
| 2023 | $11.4 | $12.2 | +7.3% |
| 2024 | $12.2 | $10.0 | -18% |
| 2025 | $10.0 | $13.3 | +33% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.3 | $11.9 | -11% |
F's yearly returns have swung widely, from +129% in 2021 to −44% in 2022. It's down 11% so far in 2026.
TM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $141.3 | $150.5 | +6.5% |
| 2021 | $150.5 | $183.8 | +22% |
| 2022 | $183.8 | $137.1 | -25% |
| 2023 | $137.1 | $183.4 | +34% |
| 2024 | $183.4 | $199.5 | +8.8% |
| 2025 | $199.5 | $216.6 | +8.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $216.6 | $209.7 | -3.2% |
TM has the edge over F on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.