F

Ford Motor Company

52
Fundamentals40/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential57/ 100
Risk potential23/ 100

F has the edge over PZZA overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.

PZZA

Papa John's International, Inc.

30
Fundamentals39/ 100
Valuation43/ 100
Upside potential30/ 100
Risk potential50/ 100

PZZA trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.

F Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Under pressure
Under pressure
Strong

F's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.

PZZA Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Under pressure
Stable
Under pressure
Weak

PZZA's profitability is currently stable, but its revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.

F PE Valuation

F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

PZZA PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE1231x2461x3692x4923x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE1231x2461x3692x4923x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap21x$15.78-18%
Current25x$19.16—
Fair33x$25.26+32%
Expensive100x$75.77+295%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

PZZA's PE is in its cheap range at 25x.

F Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong growth
Stable
Improving
Limited
Low

Analysts expect F's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

PZZA Forward outlook

There aren't enough analyst estimates for PZZA to show an outlook.

F Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+31%$15.58
Downside-23%$9.16

Calculated from the latest close: $11.90 on Nov 12.

F has a better modeled risk to reward balance than PZZA, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

PZZA Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+21%$23.25
Downside-50%$9.49

Calculated from the latest close: $19.16 on Nov 12.

PZZA trails F on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

F Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $1.08Q1 2024: $0.97Q2 2024: $0.96Q3 2024: $0.88Q4 2024: $1.46Q1 2025: $1.25Q2 2025: $0.78Q3 2025: $1.16Q4 2025: $-2.06Q1 2026: $-1.55Q2 2026: $-1.87Q3 2026: $-1.97Forward: $1.78
Q4 2023: $1.08Q1 2024: $0.97Q2 2024: $0.96Q3 2024: $0.88Q4 2024: $1.46Q1 2025: $1.25Q2 2025: $0.78Q3 2025: $1.16Q4 2025: $-2.06Q1 2026: $-1.55Q2 2026: $-1.87Q3 2026: $-1.97Forward: $1.78
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.78—
Q3 2026-$1.97-270%
Q2 2026-$1.87-340%
Q1 2026-$1.55-224%
Q4 2025-$2.06-241%
Q3 2025$1.16+32%
Q2 2025$0.78-19%
Q1 2025$1.25+29%
Q4 2024$1.46+35%

F has swung to a loss: it lost $1.97 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.

PZZA Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $2.48Q1 2024: $2.27Q2 2024: $2.10Q3 2024: $2.89Q4 2024: $2.54Q1 2025: $2.37Q2 2025: $2.28Q3 2025: $1.14Q4 2025: $0.90Q1 2026: $0.84Q2 2026: $0.80Q3 2026: $0.76
Q4 2023: $2.48Q1 2024: $2.27Q2 2024: $2.10Q3 2024: $2.89Q4 2024: $2.54Q1 2025: $2.37Q2 2025: $2.28Q3 2025: $1.14Q4 2025: $0.90Q1 2026: $0.84Q2 2026: $0.80Q3 2026: $0.76
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026$0.76-33%
Q2 2026$0.80-65%
Q1 2026$0.84-65%
Q4 2025$0.90-65%
Q3 2025$1.14-61%
Q2 2025$2.28+8.6%
Q1 2025$2.37+4.4%
Q4 2024$2.54+2.4%

PZZA has the edge over F on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

F Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $46BQ1 2024: $42.8BQ2 2024: $47.8BQ3 2024: $46.2BQ4 2024: $48.2BQ1 2025: $40.7BQ2 2025: $50.2BQ3 2025: $50.5BQ4 2025: $45.9BQ1 2026: $43.3BQ2 2026: $48.3BQ3 2026: $49.5B
Q4 2023: $46BQ1 2024: $42.8BQ2 2024: $47.8BQ3 2024: $46.2BQ4 2024: $48.2BQ1 2025: $40.7BQ2 2025: $50.2BQ3 2025: $50.5BQ4 2025: $45.9BQ1 2026: $43.3BQ2 2026: $48.3BQ3 2026: $49.5B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$49.5B-2%
Q2 2026$48.3B-3.8%
Q1 2026$43.3B+6.4%
Q4 2025$45.9B-4.8%
Q3 2025$50.5B+9.4%
Q2 2025$50.2B+5%
Q1 2025$40.7B-5%
Q4 2024$48.2B+4.9%

F has the edge over PZZA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

PZZA Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $571MQ1 2024: $514MQ2 2024: $508MQ3 2024: $507MQ4 2024: $531MQ1 2025: $518MQ2 2025: $529MQ3 2025: $508MQ4 2025: $498MQ1 2026: $479MQ2 2026: $482MQ3 2026: $455M
Q4 2023: $571MQ1 2024: $514MQ2 2024: $508MQ3 2024: $507MQ4 2024: $531MQ1 2025: $518MQ2 2025: $529MQ3 2025: $508MQ4 2025: $498MQ1 2026: $479MQ2 2026: $482MQ3 2026: $455M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$454.8M-10%
Q2 2026$482.4M-8.8%
Q1 2026$478.6M-7.7%
Q4 2025$498.2M-6.1%
Q3 2025$508.2M+0.3%
Q2 2025$529.2M+4.2%
Q1 2025$518.3M+0.9%
Q4 2024$530.8M-7.1%

PZZA's revenue has slid since its 2023 peak: $455M last quarter, down 10% from the same quarter a year ago.

F Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $197MQ1 2024: −$709MQ2 2024: $3.4BQ3 2024: $3.5BQ4 2024: $530MQ1 2025: $1.9BQ2 2025: $4.2BQ3 2025: $5.3BQ4 2025: $1.1BQ1 2026: −$1.1BQ2 2026: $2BQ3 2026: $3.1B
Q4 2023: $197MQ1 2024: −$709MQ2 2024: $3.4BQ3 2024: $3.5BQ4 2024: $530MQ1 2025: $1.9BQ2 2025: $4.2BQ3 2025: $5.3BQ4 2025: $1.1BQ1 2026: −$1.1BQ2 2026: $2BQ3 2026: $3.1B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$3.1B-40%
Q2 2026$2B-54%
Q1 2026-$1.1B-157%
Q4 2025$1.1B+108%
Q3 2025$5.3B+50%
Q2 2025$4.2B+24%
Q1 2025$1.9B+$2.6B
Q4 2024$530M+169%

F has the edge over PZZA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

PZZA Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $40MQ1 2024: −$1MQ2 2024: $14MQ3 2024: −$4MQ4 2024: $25MQ1 2025: $19MQ2 2025: $17MQ3 2025: $23MQ4 2025: $2MQ1 2026: −$6MQ2 2026: $16MQ3 2026: $10M
Q4 2023: $40MQ1 2024: −$1MQ2 2024: $14MQ3 2024: −$4MQ4 2024: $25MQ1 2025: $19MQ2 2025: $17MQ3 2025: $23MQ4 2025: $2MQ1 2026: −$6MQ2 2026: $16MQ3 2026: $10M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$9.7M-57%
Q2 2026$15.7M-9.9%
Q1 2026-$6.2M-133%
Q4 2025$2.1M-92%
Q3 2025$22.7M+$26.5M
Q2 2025$17.4M+26%
Q1 2025$19.1M+$20.2M
Q4 2024$25.2M-38%

PZZA still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $21M over the past year.

F Total Shares

Q4 2023: 4BQ1 2024: 4BQ2 2024: 4BQ3 2024: 4BQ4 2024: 4BQ1 2025: 4BQ2 2025: 4BQ3 2025: 4BQ4 2025: 4BQ1 2026: 4.1BQ2 2026: 4BQ3 2026: 4.1B
Q4 2023: 4BQ1 2024: 4BQ2 2024: 4BQ3 2024: 4BQ4 2024: 4BQ1 2025: 4BQ2 2025: 4BQ3 2025: 4BQ4 2025: 4BQ1 2026: 4.1BQ2 2026: 4BQ3 2026: 4.1B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+2.2%+89M shares
1 year+0.7%+28M shares
3 years+0.6%+26M shares
5 years+1%+40M shares
Available history+1.8%+72M shares

F has 4.1B diluted shares, up 0.7% from a year ago.

PZZA Total Shares

Q4 2023: 33MQ1 2024: 33MQ2 2024: 33MQ3 2024: 33MQ4 2024: 33MQ1 2025: 33MQ2 2025: 33MQ3 2025: 33MQ4 2025: 33MQ1 2026: 33MQ2 2026: 33MQ3 2026: 33M
Q4 2023: 33MQ1 2024: 33MQ2 2024: 33MQ3 2024: 33MQ4 2024: 33MQ1 2025: 33MQ2 2025: 33MQ3 2025: 33MQ4 2025: 33MQ1 2026: 33MQ2 2026: 33MQ3 2026: 33M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%--
1 year+0.3%+86K shares
3 years+1%+329K shares
5 years-9.8%-3.6M shares
Available history+4.7%+1.5M shares

PZZA has the edge over F on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

F Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -1.9xQ1 2024: -1.6xQ2 2024: -1.7xQ3 2024: -2.1xQ4 2024: -1.8xQ1 2025: -1.8xQ2 2025: -2.2xQ3 2025: -2.4xQ4 2025: -3.4xQ1 2026: -2.0xQ2 2026: -2.1xQ3 2026: -2.5x
Q4 2023: -1.9xQ1 2024: -1.6xQ2 2024: -1.7xQ3 2024: -2.1xQ4 2024: -1.8xQ1 2025: -1.8xQ2 2025: -2.2xQ3 2025: -2.4xQ4 2025: -3.4xQ1 2026: -2.0xQ2 2026: -2.1xQ3 2026: -2.5x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-2.5xNet Cash
Q2 2026-2.1xNet Cash
Q1 2026-2.0xNet Cash
Q4 2025-3.4xNet Cash
Q3 2025-2.4xNet Cash
Q2 2025-2.2xNet Cash
Q1 2025-1.8xNet Cash
Q4 2024-1.8xNet Cash

F has the edge over PZZA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

PZZA Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 3.4xQ1 2024: 3.5xQ2 2024: 3.6xQ3 2024: 3.0xQ4 2024: 3.1xQ1 2025: 3.2xQ2 2025: 3.2xQ3 2025: 4.0xQ4 2025: 3.8xQ1 2026: 3.9xQ2 2026: 4.0xQ3 2026: 4.1x
Q4 2023: 3.4xQ1 2024: 3.5xQ2 2024: 3.6xQ3 2024: 3.0xQ4 2024: 3.1xQ1 2025: 3.2xQ2 2025: 3.2xQ3 2025: 4.0xQ4 2025: 3.8xQ1 2026: 3.9xQ2 2026: 4.0xQ3 2026: 4.1x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20264.1xHigh
Q2 20264.0xElevated
Q1 20263.9xElevated
Q4 20253.8xElevated
Q3 20254.0xElevated
Q2 20253.2xElevated
Q1 20253.2xElevated
Q4 20243.1xElevated

PZZA's net debt is about 4.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.

F Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI41.5Neutral
Stochastic19.6Oversold

F's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).

PZZA Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI30.4Neutral
Stochastic13.3Oversold

PZZA's weekly RSI is 30 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).

F PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricFSector medianRelative
PEN/A18x—

F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

PZZA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricPZZASector medianRelative
PE25x18x40% above
PE %294718 pts below

PZZA is trading at 25x earnings, a 40% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.

F Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$12.22.5% below
20 week MA$13.311% below
50 week MA$13.411% below
100 week MA$12.12% below
200 week MA$12.11.4% below

F is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.4% below its 200-week average.

PZZA Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$19.20.2% below
20 week MA$23.819% below
50 week MA$30.838% below
100 week MA$37.248% below
200 week MA$51.463% below

PZZA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 63% below its 200-week average.

F Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$9.36$8.86-5.3%
2021$8.86$20.3+129%
2022$20.3$11.4-44%
2023$11.4$12.2+7.3%
2024$12.2$10.0-18%
2025$10.0$13.3+33%
2026 YTD$13.3$11.9-11%

F has the edge over PZZA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

PZZA Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$64.5$87.5+36%
2021$87.5$132.6+51%
2022$132.6$84.0-37%
2023$84.0$76.2-9.2%
2024$76.2$39.5-48%
2025$39.5$39.3-0.5%
2026 YTD$39.3$19.2-51%

PZZA has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 51% so far in 2026.

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