PZZA

Papa John's International, Inc.

30
Fundamentals39/ 100
Valuation43/ 100
Upside potential30/ 100
Risk potential50/ 100

PZZA's fundamentals are weak: free cash flow fell 75% and earnings per share fell 33%. At 25x earnings, it's trading below its usual 34x.

PZZA Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Under pressure
Stable
Under pressure
Weak

PZZA's profitability is currently stable, but its revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.

PZZA PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE1231x2461x3692x4923x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE1231x2461x3692x4923x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap21x$15.78-18%
Current25x$19.16—
Fair33x$25.26+32%
Expensive100x$75.77+295%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

PZZA's PE is in its cheap range at 25x.

PZZA Forward outlook

There aren't enough analyst estimates for PZZA to show an outlook.

PZZA Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+21%$23.25
Downside-50%$9.49

Calculated from the latest close: $19.16 on Nov 12.

PZZA's one-year downside scenario is more than twice its upside: −50% against +21%.

PZZA Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $2.48Q1 2024: $2.27Q2 2024: $2.10Q3 2024: $2.89Q4 2024: $2.54Q1 2025: $2.37Q2 2025: $2.28Q3 2025: $1.14Q4 2025: $0.90Q1 2026: $0.84Q2 2026: $0.80Q3 2026: $0.76
Q4 2023: $2.48Q1 2024: $2.27Q2 2024: $2.10Q3 2024: $2.89Q4 2024: $2.54Q1 2025: $2.37Q2 2025: $2.28Q3 2025: $1.14Q4 2025: $0.90Q1 2026: $0.84Q2 2026: $0.80Q3 2026: $0.76
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026$0.76-33%
Q2 2026$0.80-65%
Q1 2026$0.84-65%
Q4 2025$0.90-65%
Q3 2025$1.14-61%
Q2 2025$2.28+8.6%
Q1 2025$2.37+4.4%
Q4 2024$2.54+2.4%

PZZA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.76 over the past year, against $2.89 in late 2024.

PZZA Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $571MQ1 2024: $514MQ2 2024: $508MQ3 2024: $507MQ4 2024: $531MQ1 2025: $518MQ2 2025: $529MQ3 2025: $508MQ4 2025: $498MQ1 2026: $479MQ2 2026: $482MQ3 2026: $455M
Q4 2023: $571MQ1 2024: $514MQ2 2024: $508MQ3 2024: $507MQ4 2024: $531MQ1 2025: $518MQ2 2025: $529MQ3 2025: $508MQ4 2025: $498MQ1 2026: $479MQ2 2026: $482MQ3 2026: $455M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$454.8M-10%
Q2 2026$482.4M-8.8%
Q1 2026$478.6M-7.7%
Q4 2025$498.2M-6.1%
Q3 2025$508.2M+0.3%
Q2 2025$529.2M+4.2%
Q1 2025$518.3M+0.9%
Q4 2024$530.8M-7.1%

PZZA's revenue has slid since its 2023 peak: $455M last quarter, down 10% from the same quarter a year ago.

PZZA Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $40MQ1 2024: −$1MQ2 2024: $14MQ3 2024: −$4MQ4 2024: $25MQ1 2025: $19MQ2 2025: $17MQ3 2025: $23MQ4 2025: $2MQ1 2026: −$6MQ2 2026: $16MQ3 2026: $10M
Q4 2023: $40MQ1 2024: −$1MQ2 2024: $14MQ3 2024: −$4MQ4 2024: $25MQ1 2025: $19MQ2 2025: $17MQ3 2025: $23MQ4 2025: $2MQ1 2026: −$6MQ2 2026: $16MQ3 2026: $10M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$9.7M-57%
Q2 2026$15.7M-9.9%
Q1 2026-$6.2M-133%
Q4 2025$2.1M-92%
Q3 2025$22.7M+$26.5M
Q2 2025$17.4M+26%
Q1 2025$19.1M+$20.2M
Q4 2024$25.2M-38%

PZZA still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $21M over the past year.

PZZA Total Shares

Q4 2023: 33MQ1 2024: 33MQ2 2024: 33MQ3 2024: 33MQ4 2024: 33MQ1 2025: 33MQ2 2025: 33MQ3 2025: 33MQ4 2025: 33MQ1 2026: 33MQ2 2026: 33MQ3 2026: 33M
Q4 2023: 33MQ1 2024: 33MQ2 2024: 33MQ3 2024: 33MQ4 2024: 33MQ1 2025: 33MQ2 2025: 33MQ3 2025: 33MQ4 2025: 33MQ1 2026: 33MQ2 2026: 33MQ3 2026: 33M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%--
1 year+0.3%+86K shares
3 years+1%+329K shares
5 years-9.8%-3.6M shares
Available history+4.7%+1.5M shares

PZZA has 33M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.

PZZA Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 3.4xQ1 2024: 3.5xQ2 2024: 3.6xQ3 2024: 3.0xQ4 2024: 3.1xQ1 2025: 3.2xQ2 2025: 3.2xQ3 2025: 4.0xQ4 2025: 3.8xQ1 2026: 3.9xQ2 2026: 4.0xQ3 2026: 4.1x
Q4 2023: 3.4xQ1 2024: 3.5xQ2 2024: 3.6xQ3 2024: 3.0xQ4 2024: 3.1xQ1 2025: 3.2xQ2 2025: 3.2xQ3 2025: 4.0xQ4 2025: 3.8xQ1 2026: 3.9xQ2 2026: 4.0xQ3 2026: 4.1x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20264.1xHigh
Q2 20264.0xElevated
Q1 20263.9xElevated
Q4 20253.8xElevated
Q3 20254.0xElevated
Q2 20253.2xElevated
Q1 20253.2xElevated
Q4 20243.1xElevated

PZZA's net debt is about 4.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.

PZZA Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI30.4Neutral
Stochastic13.3Oversold

PZZA's weekly RSI is 30 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).

PZZA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricPZZASector medianRelative
PE25x18x40% above
PE %294718 pts below

PZZA is trading at 25x earnings, a 40% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.

PZZA Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$19.20.2% below
20 week MA$23.819% below
50 week MA$30.838% below
100 week MA$37.248% below
200 week MA$51.463% below

PZZA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 63% below its 200-week average.

PZZA Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$64.5$87.5+36%
2021$87.5$132.6+51%
2022$132.6$84.0-37%
2023$84.0$76.2-9.2%
2024$76.2$39.5-48%
2025$39.5$39.3-0.5%
2026 YTD$39.3$19.2-51%

PZZA has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 51% so far in 2026.

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