F
Ford Motor Company
F offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
PKG has the edge over F overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
F Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
F's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
PKG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
PKG's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability and cash flow are stable.
F PE Valuation
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PKG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $106 | -58% |
| Forward | 18x | $251 | — |
| Fair | 20x | $165 | -34% |
| Expensive | 27x | $220 | -12% |
| Current | 31x | $251 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PKG's PE is in its expensive range at 31x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
F Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect F's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PKG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
PKG has the edge over F on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
F Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.78 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.97 | -270% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.87 | -340% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.55 | -224% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.06 | -241% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16 | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.78 | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.25 | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.46 | +35% |
F has swung to a loss: it lost $1.97 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
PKG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $14.00 | +72% |
| Q3 2026 | $8.13 | -18% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.71 | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.23 | -14% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.58 | -3.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.89 | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $10.02 | +26% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.56 | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.93 | +5.3% |
PKG has the edge over F on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
F Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $49.5B | -2% |
| Q2 2026 | $48.3B | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $43.3B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.9B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $50.5B | +9.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $50.2B | +5% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.7B | -5% |
| Q4 2024 | $48.2B | +4.9% |
F's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $49.5B last quarter, down 2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +4.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -25% | -28 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1% | -2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5% | +3.1 points |
F's operating margin was 2.9% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
PKG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.6B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.4B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.3B | +6% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2B | +4.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | +8.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | +11% |
PKG has the edge over F on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | -3.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | -2.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | -1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 15% | +2.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | +3.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | +0.6 points |
PKG has the edge over F on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
F Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | -40% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | -54% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -157% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +108% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.3B | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.2B | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | +$2.6B |
| Q4 2024 | $530M | +169% |
F still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $5.1B over the past year.
PKG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $224.3M | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $170.1M | +31% |
| Q1 2026 | $164.6M | -14% |
| Q4 2025 | $127.6M | +2.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $280.1M | +55% |
| Q2 2025 | $129.9M | +290% |
| Q1 2025 | $191M | +4% |
| Q4 2024 | $124.1M | -36% |
PKG's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $687M over the past year, down 5.3% from the year before.
F Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.2% | +89M shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +28M shares |
| 3 years | +0.6% | +26M shares |
| 5 years | +1% | +40M shares |
| Available history | +1.8% | +72M shares |
F has 4.1B diluted shares, up 0.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $311M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $150M |
F spent $311M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 107% from the year before.
PKG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -700K shares |
| 3 years | -0.6% | -500K shares |
| 5 years | -6% | -5.7M shares |
| Available history | -5.4% | -5.1M shares |
PKG has the edge over F on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $58.8M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | $380.6M |
F Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
F has the edge over PKG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
PKG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1x | Healthy |
PKG's net debt is about 1.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
F Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.6 | Oversold |
F's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
PKG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 75.0 | Neutral |
PKG's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
F PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | F | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PKG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | PKG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 18x | 71% above |
| PE % | 98 | 47 | 51 pts above |
PKG is trading at 31x earnings, a 71% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
F Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.2 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.3 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.4 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.1 | 2% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.1 | 1.4% below |
F is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.4% below its 200-week average.
PKG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $242.1 | 3.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $242.3 | 3.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $228.3 | 9.7% above |
| 100 week MA | $216.2 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $193.0 | 30% above |
PKG has the edge over F on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
F Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.36 | $8.86 | -5.3% |
| 2021 | $8.86 | $20.3 | +129% |
| 2022 | $20.3 | $11.4 | -44% |
| 2023 | $11.4 | $12.2 | +7.3% |
| 2024 | $12.2 | $10.0 | -18% |
| 2025 | $10.0 | $13.3 | +33% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.3 | $11.9 | -11% |
F's yearly returns have swung widely, from +129% in 2021 to −44% in 2022. It's down 11% so far in 2026.
PKG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $111.8 | $136.1 | +22% |
| 2021 | $136.1 | $131.3 | -3.5% |
| 2022 | $131.3 | $128.7 | -2% |
| 2023 | $128.7 | $162.9 | +27% |
| 2024 | $162.9 | $227.1 | +39% |
| 2025 | $227.1 | $208.9 | -8% |
| 2026 YTD | $208.9 | $250.6 | +20% |
PKG has the edge over F on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.