F
Ford Motor Company
F has the edge over HOG overall, supported by stronger fundamentals.
HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
HOG has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
F Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
F's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
HOG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
HOG's balance sheet is currently strong, and its cash flow is stable, but its revenue and profitability are under pressure.
F PE Valuation
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
HOG PE Valuation
HOG has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
F Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect F's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HOG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
HOG has the edge over F on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
F Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.78 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.97 | -270% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.87 | -340% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.55 | -224% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.06 | -241% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16 | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.78 | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.25 | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.46 | +35% |
F has swung to a loss: it lost $1.97 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
HOG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.78 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.90 | -121% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.80 | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.93 | -31% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.78 | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.23 | -5.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.04 | -59% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.79 | -39% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.44 | -29% |
HOG has swung to a loss: it lost $0.90 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
F Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $49.5B | -2% |
| Q2 2026 | $48.3B | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $43.3B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.9B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $50.5B | +9.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $50.2B | +5% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.7B | -5% |
| Q4 2024 | $48.2B | +4.9% |
F has the edge over HOG on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +4.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -25% | -28 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1% | -2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5% | +3.1 points |
F's operating margin was 2.9% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
HOG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | -19% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | -5.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | -12% |
| Q4 2025 | $496.2M | -28% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | -23% |
| Q4 2024 | $687.6M | -35% |
HOG's revenue has slid since its 2023 peak: $1.1B last quarter, down 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.5% | -32 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.2% | -2.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2% | -10 points |
| Q4 2025 | -73% | -45 points |
| Q3 2025 | 35% | +26 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.6% | -6.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | -3.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -28% | -26 points |
HOG has the edge over F on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
F Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | -40% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | -54% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -157% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +108% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.3B | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.2B | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | +$2.6B |
| Q4 2024 | $530M | +169% |
F has the edge over HOG on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HOG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $315.9M | +$445M |
| Q2 2026 | $155.4M | -53% |
| Q1 2026 | -$259.8M | -333% |
| Q4 2025 | $100.4M | +30% |
| Q3 2025 | -$129.1M | -143% |
| Q2 2025 | $332.4M | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | $111.6M | +94% |
| Q4 2024 | $77M | +$97.4M |
HOG still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $312M over the past year.
F Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.2% | +89M shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +28M shares |
| 3 years | +0.6% | +26M shares |
| 5 years | +1% | +40M shares |
| Available history | +1.8% | +72M shares |
F has 4.1B diluted shares, up 0.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $311M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $150M |
F spent $311M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 107% from the year before.
HOG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.8% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | -12% | -15.1M shares |
| 3 years | -26% | -37.7M shares |
| 5 years | -31% | -48.5M shares |
| Available history | -32% | -51.2M shares |
HOG has the edge over F on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $90.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $30.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $70M |
| Q4 2025 | $160.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $100.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $45,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $93.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $100M |
HOG spent $351M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 20% from the year before.
F Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
F has the edge over HOG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HOG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 4.7x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 15.1x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 11.3x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 9.3x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 7.4x | High |
HOG's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 15 years a year ago.
F Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.6 | Oversold |
F's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
HOG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 70.1 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 85.9 | Overbought |
HOG's weekly RSI is 70 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
F PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | F | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
HOG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | HOG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 18x | 11% below |
| PE % | 87 | 47 | 40 pts above |
HOG has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
F Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.2 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.3 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.4 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.1 | 2% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.1 | 1.4% below |
F is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.4% below its 200-week average.
HOG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $28.6 | 13% above |
| 20 week MA | $27.4 | 18% above |
| 50 week MA | $24.1 | 35% above |
| 100 week MA | $25.1 | 30% above |
| 200 week MA | $30.4 | 6.6% above |
HOG has the edge over F on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
F Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.36 | $8.86 | -5.3% |
| 2021 | $8.86 | $20.3 | +129% |
| 2022 | $20.3 | $11.4 | -44% |
| 2023 | $11.4 | $12.2 | +7.3% |
| 2024 | $12.2 | $10.0 | -18% |
| 2025 | $10.0 | $13.3 | +33% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.3 | $11.9 | -11% |
F's yearly returns have swung widely, from +129% in 2021 to −44% in 2022. It's down 11% so far in 2026.
HOG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $37.8 | $37.1 | -1.7% |
| 2021 | $37.1 | $36.2 | -2.3% |
| 2022 | $36.2 | $41.4 | +14% |
| 2023 | $41.4 | $36.8 | -11% |
| 2024 | $36.8 | $30.3 | -18% |
| 2025 | $30.3 | $21.0 | -31% |
| 2026 YTD | $21.0 | $32.4 | +54% |
HOG has the edge over F on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.