F
Ford Motor Company
F has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
HLLY
Holley Inc.
HLLY has the edge over F overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
F Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
F's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
HLLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
HLLY's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
F PE Valuation
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
HLLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.6x | $1.05 | -55% |
| Current | 15x | $2.36 | — |
| Fair | 20x | $3.24 | +37% |
| Expensive | 28x | $4.43 | +88% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HLLY's PE is in its fair range at 15x.
F Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect F's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HLLY Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for HLLY to show an outlook.
F Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.78 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.97 | -270% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.87 | -340% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.55 | -224% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.06 | -241% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16 | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.78 | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.25 | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.46 | +35% |
F has swung to a loss: it lost $1.97 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
HLLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $0.16 | +$0.38 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.09 | +$0.35 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.20 | +$0.41 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.16 | +$0.36 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.22 | -283% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.26 | -244% |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.21 | -240% |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.20 | -225% |
HLLY has the edge over F on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
F Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $49.5B | -2% |
| Q2 2026 | $48.3B | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $43.3B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.9B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $50.5B | +9.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $50.2B | +5% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.7B | -5% |
| Q4 2024 | $48.2B | +4.9% |
F has the edge over HLLY on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +4.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -25% | -28 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1% | -2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5% | +3.1 points |
F's operating margin was 2.9% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
HLLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $141.6M | +2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $172M | +3.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $147.3M | -3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $155.4M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $138.4M | +3.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $166.7M | -1.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $153M | -3.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $140.1M | -10% |
HLLY's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $142M last quarter, up 2.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.6% | -15 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | -0.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 13% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | +7.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | +6.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | -21% | -33 points |
HLLY has the edge over F on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
F Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | -40% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | -54% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -157% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +108% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.3B | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.2B | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | +$2.6B |
| Q4 2024 | $530M | +169% |
F still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $5.1B over the past year.
HLLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.8M | +66% |
| Q2 2026 | $40.9M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | -$6.3M | +$4.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $3.8M | +123% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.3M | +$8.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $35.7M | +47% |
| Q1 2025 | -$10.8M | -162% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7M | -94% |
HLLY has the edge over F on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
F Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.2% | +89M shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +28M shares |
| 3 years | +0.6% | +26M shares |
| 5 years | +1% | +40M shares |
| Available history | +1.8% | +72M shares |
F has the edge over HLLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $311M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $150M |
F spent $311M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 107% from the year before.
HLLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +593K shares |
| 1 year | +1.2% | +1.5M shares |
| 3 years | +1.4% | +1.6M shares |
| 5 years | +1170% | +111M shares |
HLLY has 121M diluted shares, up 1.2% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
F Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
F has the edge over HLLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HLLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.4x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.7x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.8x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 10.3x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 10.6x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 12.7x | High |
HLLY's net debt is about 5.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.3 years a year ago.
F Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.6 | Oversold |
F's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
HLLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 21.7 | Neutral |
HLLY's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 22 (neutral).
F PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | F | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
HLLY PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | HLLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 18x | 18% below |
| PE % | 34 | 49 | 15 pts below |
HLLY is trading at 15x earnings, a 18% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
F Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.2 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.3 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.4 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.1 | 2% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.1 | 1.4% below |
F is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.4% below its 200-week average.
HLLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.42 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $2.64 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $3.11 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $2.94 | 20% below |
| 200 week MA | $3.39 | 30% below |
HLLY is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 30% below its 200-week average.
F Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.36 | $8.86 | -5.3% |
| 2021 | $8.86 | $20.3 | +129% |
| 2022 | $20.3 | $11.4 | -44% |
| 2023 | $11.4 | $12.2 | +7.3% |
| 2024 | $12.2 | $10.0 | -18% |
| 2025 | $10.0 | $13.3 | +33% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.3 | $11.9 | -11% |
F has the edge over HLLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
HLLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.75 | $10.0 | +2.7% |
| 2021 | $10.0 | $12.6 | +26% |
| 2022 | $12.6 | $2.04 | -84% |
| 2023 | $2.04 | $4.87 | +139% |
| 2024 | $4.87 | $3.00 | -38% |
| 2025 | $3.00 | $4.17 | +39% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.17 | $2.36 | -43% |
HLLY's yearly returns have swung widely, from +139% in 2023 to −84% in 2022. It's down 43% so far in 2026.