F
Ford Motor Company
F has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
FOSL
Fossil Group, Inc.
FOSL has the edge over F overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
F Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
F's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
FOSL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
FOSL's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
F PE Valuation
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
FOSL PE Valuation
FOSL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
F Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect F's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
FOSL Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for FOSL to show an outlook.
F Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.78 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.97 | -270% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.87 | -340% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.55 | -224% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.06 | -241% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16 | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.78 | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.25 | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.46 | +35% |
F has swung to a loss: it lost $1.97 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
FOSL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.32 | +$0.96 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.27 | -$0.15 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.13 | +$0.68 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.45 | +$0.49 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.28 | +$1.04 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.12 | +$1.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.81 | +$0.85 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.94 | +$1.06 |
FOSL has the edge over F on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
F Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $49.5B | -2% |
| Q2 2026 | $48.3B | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $43.3B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.9B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $50.5B | +9.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $50.2B | +5% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.7B | -5% |
| Q4 2024 | $48.2B | +4.9% |
F has the edge over FOSL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +4.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -25% | -28 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1% | -2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5% | +3.1 points |
F's operating margin was 2.9% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
FOSL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $271.2M | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $209.7M | -4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $224.8M | -3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $280.5M | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $270.2M | -6.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $220.4M | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | $233.3M | -8.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $342.3M | -19% |
FOSL's revenue has slid since its 2019 peak: $271M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.3% | +17 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.5% | -2.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +8.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | +5.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -8% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9% | +17 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.9% | +8.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -4.8% | +0.9 points |
FOSL has the edge over F on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
F Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | -40% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | -54% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -157% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +108% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.3B | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.2B | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | +$2.6B |
| Q4 2024 | $530M | +169% |
F has the edge over FOSL on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
FOSL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $428K | +$22.9M |
| Q2 2026 | -$10.1M | -217% |
| Q1 2026 | -$22.7M | +$37.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $14.1M | -51% |
| Q3 2025 | -$22.5M | +$1.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $8.6M | -76% |
| Q1 2025 | -$60.6M | -$59.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $28.5M | -40% |
FOSL's free cash flow was −$18M over the past year, against −$46M the year before.
F Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.2% | +89M shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +28M shares |
| 3 years | +0.6% | +26M shares |
| 5 years | +1% | +40M shares |
| Available history | +1.8% | +72M shares |
F has the edge over FOSL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $311M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $150M |
F spent $311M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 107% from the year before.
FOSL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.6% | +2.1M shares |
| 1 year | +17% | +8.8M shares |
| 3 years | +17% | +8.7M shares |
| 5 years | +16% | +8.4M shares |
| Available history | +22% | +10.9M shares |
FOSL has 61M diluted shares, up 17% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $3,000 |
| Q4 2023 | $530,000 |
| Q3 2023 | — |
F Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
F has the edge over FOSL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
FOSL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 22.0x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 9.8x | High |
| Q4 2022 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q3 2022 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2022 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2022 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2021 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
FOSL's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.9 years a year ago.
F Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.6 | Oversold |
F's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
FOSL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 76.5 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 80.5 | Overbought |
FOSL's weekly RSI is 76 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 81 (overbought).
F PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | F | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
FOSL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | FOSL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
FOSL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
F Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.2 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.3 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.4 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.1 | 2% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.1 | 1.4% below |
F is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.4% below its 200-week average.
FOSL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $7.11 | 23% above |
| 20 week MA | $5.78 | 51% above |
| 50 week MA | $4.83 | 81% above |
| 100 week MA | $3.34 | 162% above |
| 200 week MA | $2.63 | 232% above |
FOSL has the edge over F on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
F Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.36 | $8.86 | -5.3% |
| 2021 | $8.86 | $20.3 | +129% |
| 2022 | $20.3 | $11.4 | -44% |
| 2023 | $11.4 | $12.2 | +7.3% |
| 2024 | $12.2 | $10.0 | -18% |
| 2025 | $10.0 | $13.3 | +33% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.3 | $11.9 | -11% |
F's yearly returns have swung widely, from +129% in 2021 to −44% in 2022. It's down 11% so far in 2026.
FOSL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $7.74 | $9.19 | +19% |
| 2021 | $9.19 | $10.2 | +11% |
| 2022 | $10.2 | $3.98 | -61% |
| 2023 | $3.98 | $1.46 | -63% |
| 2024 | $1.46 | $1.89 | +29% |
| 2025 | $1.89 | $3.85 | +104% |
| 2026 YTD | $3.85 | $8.74 | +127% |
FOSL has the edge over F on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.