EXEL
Exelixis, Inc.
EXEL has the edge over UNH overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UNH has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
EXEL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
EXEL's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
UNH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
EXEL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 18x | $60.50 | -13% |
| Forward | 18x | $69.84 | — |
| Current | 21x | $69.84 | — |
| Fair | 24x | $79.95 | +14% |
| Expensive | 44x | $146 | +109% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
EXEL's PE is in its fair range at 21x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
UNH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $405 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $325 | -20% |
| Fair | 23x | $410 | +1.2% |
| Current | 23x | $405 | — |
| Expensive | 30x | $526 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UNH has the edge over EXEL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
EXEL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
EXEL has the edge over UNH on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
UNH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect UNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
EXEL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.82 | +14% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.35 | +42% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.19 | +54% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.02 | +38% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.78 | +58% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.36 | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.07 | +77% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.19 | +237% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.76 | +171% |
EXEL has the edge over UNH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
UNH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.65 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.55 | -8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.58 | -33% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.28 | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.23 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.17 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.09 | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.89 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.51 | -35% |
UNH's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $17.55 over the past year, against $23.89 in early 2025.
EXEL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $658.7M | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $628.7M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $610.8M | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $598.7M | +5.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $597.8M | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $568.3M | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $555.4M | +31% |
| Q4 2024 | $566.8M | +18% |
EXEL has the edge over UNH on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 41% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | +1.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 41% | +7.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 39% | +11 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | +14 points |
| Q2 2025 | 38% | -5.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 34% | +27 points |
| Q4 2024 | 29% | +12 points |
EXEL has the edge over UNH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
UNH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.7B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $112B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $111.7B | +2% |
| Q4 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $111.6B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $109.6B | +9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.8B | +6.8% |
UNH's revenue has held roughly level: $113B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.1% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | -7.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.6% | -3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.3% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.7% | -0.4 points |
UNH's operating margin was 5.8% last quarter, up 2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
EXEL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $277.5M | -3.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $300.9M | +552% |
| Q1 2026 | $250.3M | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $332.4M | +41% |
| Q3 2025 | $288.8M | +9.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $46.2M | -59% |
| Q1 2025 | $208.5M | +253% |
| Q4 2024 | $236.3M | +$238.9M |
EXEL has the edge over UNH on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
UNH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.3B | +63% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.1B | +79% |
| Q4 2025 | $160M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | -61% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.3B | +6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +1037% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | +$7.6B |
UNH still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $22.8B over the past year.
EXEL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.5% | -3.9M shares |
| 1 year | -8.2% | -22.8M shares |
| 3 years | -20% | -63.5M shares |
| 5 years | -21% | -66.3M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -59.3M shares |
EXEL has the edge over UNH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $250M |
| Q2 2026 | $323M |
| Q1 2026 | $430.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $257.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $104M |
| Q2 2025 | $301.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $283.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $190.4M |
EXEL spent $1.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 43% from the year before.
UNH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -4M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -3.6% | -34M shares |
| 5 years | -5.5% | -53M shares |
| Available history | -6.6% | -64M shares |
UNH has 902M diluted shares, down 0.7% from a year ago, with $5B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $3B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
UNH spent $5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 52% from the year before.
EXEL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
EXEL has the edge over UNH on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
UNH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
UNH's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
EXEL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 78.5 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 84.7 | Overbought |
EXEL's weekly RSI is 79 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 85 (overbought).
UNH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.0 | Neutral |
UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
EXEL PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | EXEL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 26x | 19% below |
| PE % | 36 | 29 | 7 pts above |
EXEL has the edge over UNH on valuation relative to its sector.
UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | UNH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 26x | 11% below |
| PE % | 47 | 29 | 18 pts above |
UNH is trading at 23x earnings, a 11% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
EXEL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $64.0 | 9.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $58.8 | 19% above |
| 50 week MA | $50.9 | 37% above |
| 100 week MA | $44.8 | 56% above |
| 200 week MA | $33.7 | 107% above |
EXEL has the edge over UNH on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
UNH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $394.2 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $400.5 | 1.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $361.2 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $376.0 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $446.6 | 9.3% below |
UNH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 9.3% below its 200-week average.
EXEL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $18.1 | $20.7 | +14% |
| 2021 | $20.7 | $19.3 | -6.9% |
| 2022 | $19.3 | $15.8 | -18% |
| 2023 | $15.8 | $24.0 | +52% |
| 2024 | $24.0 | $33.8 | +41% |
| 2025 | $33.8 | $46.2 | +37% |
| 2026 YTD | $46.2 | $69.8 | +51% |
EXEL has the edge over UNH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
UNH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $296.0 | $340.8 | +15% |
| 2021 | $340.8 | $495.4 | +45% |
| 2022 | $495.4 | $531.3 | +7.3% |
| 2023 | $531.3 | $526.5 | -0.9% |
| 2024 | $526.5 | $510.0 | -3.1% |
| 2025 | $510.0 | $331.8 | -35% |
| 2026 YTD | $331.8 | $405.1 | +22% |
UNH has finished three years in a row lower, and it's up 22% so far in 2026.