EXEL
Exelixis, Inc.
EXEL has the edge over NVO overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
EXEL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
EXEL's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
EXEL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 18x | $60.50 | -13% |
| Forward | 18x | $69.84 | — |
| Current | 21x | $69.84 | — |
| Fair | 24x | $79.95 | +14% |
| Expensive | 44x | $146 | +109% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
EXEL's PE is in its fair range at 21x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO has the edge over EXEL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
EXEL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
EXEL has the edge over NVO on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
EXEL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.82 | +14% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.35 | +42% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.19 | +54% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.02 | +38% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.78 | +58% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.36 | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.07 | +77% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.19 | +237% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.76 | +171% |
EXEL has the edge over NVO on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $3.89 over the past year, up 4.9% from the year before, and higher year over year every quarter since late 2020.
EXEL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $658.7M | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $628.7M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $610.8M | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $598.7M | +5.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $597.8M | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $568.3M | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $555.4M | +31% |
| Q4 2024 | $566.8M | +18% |
EXEL's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $659M last quarter, up 10% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 41% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | +1.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 41% | +7.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 39% | +11 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | +14 points |
| Q2 2025 | 38% | -5.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 34% | +27 points |
| Q4 2024 | 29% | +12 points |
EXEL has the edge over NVO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO has the edge over EXEL on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO's operating margin was 34% last quarter, down 9 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
EXEL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $277.5M | -3.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $300.9M | +552% |
| Q1 2026 | $250.3M | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $332.4M | +41% |
| Q3 2025 | $288.8M | +9.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $46.2M | -59% |
| Q1 2025 | $208.5M | +253% |
| Q4 2024 | $236.3M | +$238.9M |
EXEL has the edge over NVO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $7.3B over the past year.
EXEL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.5% | -3.9M shares |
| 1 year | -8.2% | -22.8M shares |
| 3 years | -20% | -63.5M shares |
| 5 years | -21% | -66.3M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -59.3M shares |
EXEL has the edge over NVO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $250M |
| Q2 2026 | $323M |
| Q1 2026 | $430.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $257.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $104M |
| Q2 2025 | $301.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $283.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $190.4M |
EXEL spent $1.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 43% from the year before.
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has 4.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
EXEL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
EXEL has the edge over NVO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
EXEL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 78.5 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 84.7 | Overbought |
EXEL's weekly RSI is 79 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 85 (overbought).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
EXEL PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | EXEL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 26x | 19% below |
| PE % | 36 | 29 | 7 pts above |
EXEL is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO has the edge over EXEL on valuation relative to its sector.
EXEL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $64.0 | 9.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $58.8 | 19% above |
| 50 week MA | $50.9 | 37% above |
| 100 week MA | $44.8 | 56% above |
| 200 week MA | $33.7 | 107% above |
EXEL has the edge over NVO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
EXEL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $18.1 | $20.7 | +14% |
| 2021 | $20.7 | $19.3 | -6.9% |
| 2022 | $19.3 | $15.8 | -18% |
| 2023 | $15.8 | $24.0 | +52% |
| 2024 | $24.0 | $33.8 | +41% |
| 2025 | $33.8 | $46.2 | +37% |
| 2026 YTD | $46.2 | $69.8 | +51% |
EXEL has the edge over NVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.