ESTC
Elastic N.V.
ESTC's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over ESTC overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
ESTC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Unavailable |
ESTC's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ESTC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 24x | $89.06 | — |
| Cheap | 25x | $86.56 | -2.8% |
| Current | 25x | $89.06 | — |
| Fair | 163x | $570 | +540% |
| Expensive | 207x | $724 | +713% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ESTC's PE is in its cheap range at 25x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 24x next year's earnings.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT has the edge over ESTC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ESTC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ESTC, with profitability improving.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
ESTC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.67 | +4.9% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.50 | +$4.29 |
| Q2 2026 | $3.43 | +$4.47 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.79 | +$0.45 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.02 | -267% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.79 | -230% |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.04 | -276% |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.24 | -364% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.61 | +$2.59 |
ESTC has returned to profit: it earned $3.50 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over ESTC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ESTC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $478.1M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $450.7M | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $449.9M | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $423.5M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $415.3M | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $388.4M | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $382.1M | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $365.4M | +18% |
ESTC's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $478M last quarter, up 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -4.9% | -2.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | -3.6% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.1% | +1.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | -1.9% | -0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | -2.3% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | -3.1% | +11 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1.2% | +6.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | -1.2% | +5.7 points |
ESTC's operating margin was −4.9% last quarter, down 2.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over ESTC on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over ESTC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ESTC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $131.4M | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $149.8M | +77% |
| Q1 2026 | $41.8M | -52% |
| Q4 2025 | $26M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $104.2M | +100% |
| Q2 2025 | $84.9M | +41% |
| Q1 2025 | $87.3M | +70% |
| Q4 2024 | $37.7M | +$40.9M |
ESTC has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
ESTC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.4% | -2.6M shares |
| 1 year | -1.2% | -1.3M shares |
| 3 years | +6.8% | +6.7M shares |
| 5 years | +15% | +13.4M shares |
| Available history | +35% | +26.9M shares |
ESTC has the edge over MSFT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $40M |
| Q2 2026 | $40M |
| Q1 2026 | $190.9M |
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has 7.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
ESTC Net Leverage
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
ESTC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.6 | Neutral |
ESTC's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 57 (neutral).
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
ESTC PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | ESTC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 28x | 8.7% below |
| PE % | 22 | 35 | 13 pts below |
ESTC has the edge over MSFT on valuation relative to its sector.
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
ESTC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $93.4 | 4.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $83.1 | 7.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $69.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $79.4 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $83.1 | 7.2% above |
ESTC has slipped below its 8-week average, but it's still above the other four, and 7.2% above its 200-week average.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT's trend is up, with a small recent dip: it's below only its 8-week average, and 27% above its 200-week average.
ESTC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $65.0 | $156.0 | +140% |
| 2021 | $156.0 | $124.0 | -21% |
| 2022 | $124.0 | $51.4 | -59% |
| 2023 | $51.4 | $112.7 | +119% |
| 2024 | $112.7 | $101.5 | -9.9% |
| 2025 | $101.5 | $77.0 | -24% |
| 2026 YTD | $77.0 | $89.1 | +16% |
ESTC has the edge over MSFT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 7.2% so far in 2026.