ESNT
Essent Group Ltd.
ESNT trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over ESNT overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
ESNT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
ESNT's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like ESNT.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
ESNT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.7x | $41.50 | -36% |
| Fair | 8.4x | $61.43 | -5.3% |
| Forward | 8.5x | $64.89 | — |
| Current | 8.9x | $64.89 | — |
| Expensive | 9.5x | $69.56 | +7.2% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ESNT has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
ESNT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ESNT, but weaker profitability.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over ESNT on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and profitability expectations.
ESNT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.60 | +3.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.33 | +6.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.18 | +4.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.03 | +2.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.90 | +0.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.88 | -0.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.86 | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.84 | +3.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.85 | +5.4% |
ESNT earned $7.33 per share over the past year, up 6.5% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over ESNT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ESNT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $374.2M | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $362.7M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $336.1M | +5.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $312.4M | -0.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $311.8M | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $319.1M | +2% |
| Q1 2025 | $317.6M | +6.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $315M | +6% |
ESNT's revenue is growing: $374M last quarter, up 20% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 53% | -11 points |
| Q2 2026 | 64% | -8.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | -3.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 59% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 64% | -1.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 72% | -4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 65% | -6.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 62% | -6.4 points |
ESNT has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over ESNT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ESNT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $237.9M | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $196.1M | +3.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $191.2M | -14% |
| Q4 2025 | $228M | +0.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $210.6M | -7.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $188.8M | +0.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $221.3M | +4.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $226M | +5.9% |
ESNT has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
ESNT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.8% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -8.9% | -8.7M shares |
| 3 years | -16% | -17.3M shares |
| 5 years | -19% | -21.6M shares |
| Available history | -8.7% | -8.6M shares |
ESNT has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $74.5M |
| Q2 2026 | $191.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $170.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $126.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $122.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $170.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $168.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $66.3M |
ESNT spent $563M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 6.7% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
ESNT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
ESNT has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
ESNT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 55.2 | Neutral |
ESNT's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 55 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
ESNT PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | ESNT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.9x | 13x | 32% below |
| PE % | 64 | 63 | 1 pt above |
ESNT has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
ESNT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $64.2 | 1.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $66.0 | 1.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $63.2 | 2.7% above |
| 100 week MA | $60.9 | 6.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $56.4 | 15% above |
ESNT has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
ESNT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $52.3 | $43.9 | -16% |
| 2021 | $43.9 | $44.5 | +1.3% |
| 2022 | $44.5 | $39.0 | -12% |
| 2023 | $39.0 | $52.7 | +35% |
| 2024 | $52.7 | $54.1 | +2.5% |
| 2025 | $54.1 | $65.9 | +22% |
| 2026 YTD | $65.9 | $64.9 | -1.5% |
ESNT has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 1.5% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over ESNT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.