EBS

Emergent BioSolutions Inc.

35
Fundamentals37/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential62/ 100
Risk potential39/ 100

EBS's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

UNH

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

62
Fundamentals51/ 100
Valuation56/ 100
Upside potential71/ 100
Risk potential15/ 100

UNH has the edge over EBS overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.

EBS Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Weak
Strong
Weak

EBS's cash flow is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and balance sheet are weak.

UNH Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Stable
Healthy
Healthy

UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.

EBS PE Valuation

EBS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings.

UNH PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE10x21x31x42x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE10x21x31x42x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward18x$405—
Cheap19x$325-20%
Fair23x$410+1.2%
Current23x$405—
Expensive30x$526+30%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

UNH's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.

EBS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Returning to profit
Growth
Strongly improving
Limited
High

EBS has the edge over UNH on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.

UNH Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Stable
Improving
Moderate
Low

Analysts expect UNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

EBS Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+64%$9.64
Downside-39%$3.61

Calculated from the latest close: $5.89 on Nov 12.

EBS trails UNH on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

UNH Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+36%$550.65
Downside-15%$346.07

Calculated from the latest close: $405.13 on Nov 12.

UNH has a better modeled risk to reward balance than EBS, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

EBS Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-14.78Q1 2024: $-10.96Q2 2024: $-11.19Q3 2024: $-4.05Q4 2024: $-3.60Q1 2025: $-2.58Q2 2025: $2.58Q3 2025: $1.43Q4 2025: $0.93Q1 2026: $-0.19Q2 2026: $-3.46Q3 2026: $-5.01Forward: $0.38
Q4 2023: $-14.78Q1 2024: $-10.96Q2 2024: $-11.19Q3 2024: $-4.05Q4 2024: $-3.60Q1 2025: $-2.58Q2 2025: $2.58Q3 2025: $1.43Q4 2025: $0.93Q1 2026: $-0.19Q2 2026: $-3.46Q3 2026: $-5.01Forward: $0.38
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$0.38—
Q3 2026-$5.01-450%
Q2 2026-$3.46-234%
Q1 2026-$0.19+$2.39
Q4 2025$0.93+$4.53
Q3 2025$1.43+$5.48
Q2 2025$2.58+$13.77
Q1 2025-$2.58+$8.38
Q4 2024-$3.60+$11.18

EBS has swung to a loss: it lost $5.01 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.

UNH Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $23.86Q1 2024: $16.38Q2 2024: $15.10Q3 2024: $15.37Q4 2024: $15.51Q1 2025: $23.89Q2 2025: $23.09Q3 2025: $19.17Q4 2025: $13.23Q1 2026: $13.28Q2 2026: $15.58Q3 2026: $17.55Forward: $22.65
Q4 2023: $23.86Q1 2024: $16.38Q2 2024: $15.10Q3 2024: $15.37Q4 2024: $15.51Q1 2025: $23.89Q2 2025: $23.09Q3 2025: $19.17Q4 2025: $13.23Q1 2026: $13.28Q2 2026: $15.58Q3 2026: $17.55Forward: $22.65
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$22.65+29%
Q3 2026$17.55-8.5%
Q2 2026$15.58-33%
Q1 2026$13.28-44%
Q4 2025$13.23-15%
Q3 2025$19.17+25%
Q2 2025$23.09+53%
Q1 2025$23.89+46%
Q4 2024$15.51-35%

UNH has the edge over EBS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

EBS Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $277MQ1 2024: $300MQ2 2024: $255MQ3 2024: $294MQ4 2024: $195MQ1 2025: $222MQ2 2025: $141MQ3 2025: $231MQ4 2025: $149MQ1 2026: $156MQ2 2026: $234MQ3 2026: $110M
Q4 2023: $277MQ1 2024: $300MQ2 2024: $255MQ3 2024: $294MQ4 2024: $195MQ1 2025: $222MQ2 2025: $141MQ3 2025: $231MQ4 2025: $149MQ1 2026: $156MQ2 2026: $234MQ3 2026: $110M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$110M-52%
Q2 2026$234.3M+66%
Q1 2026$156.1M-30%
Q4 2025$148.7M-24%
Q3 2025$231.1M-21%
Q2 2025$140.9M-45%
Q1 2025$222.2M-26%
Q4 2024$194.7M-30%

EBS's revenue has slid since its 2021 peak: $110M last quarter, down 52% from the same quarter a year ago.

UNH Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $94.4BQ1 2024: $99.8BQ2 2024: $98.9BQ3 2024: $101BQ4 2024: $101BQ1 2025: $110BQ2 2025: $112BQ3 2025: $113BQ4 2025: $113BQ1 2026: $112BQ2 2026: $112BQ3 2026: $113B
Q4 2023: $94.4BQ1 2024: $99.8BQ2 2024: $98.9BQ3 2024: $101BQ4 2024: $101BQ1 2025: $110BQ2 2025: $112BQ3 2025: $113BQ4 2025: $113BQ1 2026: $112BQ2 2026: $112BQ3 2026: $113B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$112.7B-0.4%
Q2 2026$112B+0.4%
Q1 2026$111.7B+2%
Q4 2025$113.2B+12%
Q3 2025$113.2B+12%
Q2 2025$111.6B+13%
Q1 2025$109.6B+9.8%
Q4 2024$100.8B+6.8%

UNH has the edge over EBS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

EBS Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $21MQ1 2024: −$73MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $148MQ4 2024: −$82MQ1 2025: −$15MQ2 2025: $104MQ3 2025: −$6MQ4 2025: $74MQ1 2026: −$36MQ2 2026: $54MQ3 2026: $97M
Q4 2023: $21MQ1 2024: −$73MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $148MQ4 2024: −$82MQ1 2025: −$15MQ2 2025: $104MQ3 2025: −$6MQ4 2025: $74MQ1 2026: −$36MQ2 2026: $54MQ3 2026: $97M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$96.8M+$102.5M
Q2 2026$54M-48%
Q1 2026-$36.2M-$21.4M
Q4 2025$73.8M+$155.4M
Q3 2025-$5.7M-104%
Q2 2025$103.5M+141%
Q1 2025-$14.8M+$58.6M
Q4 2024-$81.6M-494%

EBS still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2021 peak: $188M over the past year.

UNH Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$6.2BQ1 2024: $401MQ2 2024: $5.9BQ3 2024: $13BQ4 2024: $1.5BQ1 2025: $4.6BQ2 2025: $6.3BQ3 2025: $5.1BQ4 2025: $160MQ1 2026: $8.1BQ2 2026: $10.3BQ3 2026: $4.3B
Q4 2023: −$6.2BQ1 2024: $401MQ2 2024: $5.9BQ3 2024: $13BQ4 2024: $1.5BQ1 2025: $4.6BQ2 2025: $6.3BQ3 2025: $5.1BQ4 2025: $160MQ1 2026: $8.1BQ2 2026: $10.3BQ3 2026: $4.3B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$4.3B-16%
Q2 2026$10.3B+63%
Q1 2026$8.1B+79%
Q4 2025$160M-89%
Q3 2025$5.1B-61%
Q2 2025$6.3B+6.9%
Q1 2025$4.6B+1037%
Q4 2024$1.5B+$7.6B

UNH has the edge over EBS on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

EBS Total Shares

Q4 2023: 51MQ1 2024: 52MQ2 2024: 53MQ3 2024: 56MQ4 2024: 53MQ1 2025: 57MQ2 2025: 54MQ3 2025: 57MQ4 2025: 57MQ1 2026: 57MQ2 2026: 52MQ3 2026: 51M
Q4 2023: 51MQ1 2024: 52MQ2 2024: 53MQ3 2024: 56MQ4 2024: 53MQ1 2025: 57MQ2 2025: 54MQ3 2025: 57MQ4 2025: 57MQ1 2026: 57MQ2 2026: 52MQ3 2026: 51M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.6%-300K shares
1 year-9.2%-5.2M shares
3 years-1%-500K shares
5 years-4.5%-2.4M shares
Available history-2.1%-1.1M shares

EBS has the edge over UNH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

UNH Total Shares

Q4 2023: 938MQ1 2024: 922MQ2 2024: 928MQ3 2024: 930MQ4 2024: 929MQ1 2025: 918MQ2 2025: 910MQ3 2025: 908MQ4 2025: 911MQ1 2026: 910MQ2 2026: 906MQ3 2026: 902M
Q4 2023: 938MQ1 2024: 922MQ2 2024: 928MQ3 2024: 930MQ4 2024: 929MQ1 2025: 918MQ2 2025: 910MQ3 2025: 908MQ4 2025: 911MQ1 2026: 910MQ2 2026: 906MQ3 2026: 902M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.4%-4M shares
1 year-0.7%-6M shares
3 years-3.6%-34M shares
5 years-5.5%-53M shares
Available history-6.6%-64M shares

UNH has 902M diluted shares, down 0.7% from a year ago, with $5B in buybacks over the past year.

EBS Net Leverage

Q4 2024: 5,642.0xQ1 2025: 67.1xQ2 2025: 1.9xQ3 2025: 1.9xQ4 2025: 1.9xQ1 2026: 2.7xQ2 2026: 15.6x
Q4 2024: 5,642.0xQ1 2025: 67.1xQ2 2025: 1.9xQ3 2025: 1.9xQ4 2025: 1.9xQ1 2026: 2.7xQ2 2026: 15.6x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 202615.6xHigh
Q1 20262.7xModerate
Q4 20251.9xHealthy
Q3 20251.9xHealthy
Q2 20251.9xHealthy
Q1 202567.1xHigh
Q4 20245,642.0xHigh
Q3 20211.1xHealthy

EBS's net debt is about 16 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.9 years a year ago.

UNH Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 1.0xQ1 2024: 1.3xQ2 2024: 1.4xQ3 2024: 1.3xQ4 2024: 1.4xQ1 2025: 1.3xQ2 2025: 1.5xQ3 2025: 1.7xQ4 2025: 2.3xQ1 2026: 2.2xQ2 2026: 1.7xQ3 2026: 1.7x
Q4 2023: 1.0xQ1 2024: 1.3xQ2 2024: 1.4xQ3 2024: 1.3xQ4 2024: 1.4xQ1 2025: 1.3xQ2 2025: 1.5xQ3 2025: 1.7xQ4 2025: 2.3xQ1 2026: 2.2xQ2 2026: 1.7xQ3 2026: 1.7x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20261.7xHealthy
Q2 20261.7xHealthy
Q1 20262.2xModerate
Q4 20252.3xModerate
Q3 20251.7xHealthy
Q2 20251.5xHealthy
Q1 20251.3xHealthy
Q4 20241.4xHealthy

UNH has the edge over EBS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

EBS Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI42.0Neutral
Stochastic56.9Neutral

EBS's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 57 (neutral).

UNH Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI56.4Neutral
Stochastic60.0Neutral

UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).

EBS PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricEBSSector medianRelative
PEN/A26x—

EBS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricUNHSector medianRelative
PE23x26x11% below
PE %472918 pts above

UNH is trading at 23x earnings, a 11% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.

EBS Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$6.448.5% below
20 week MA$6.489.1% below
50 week MA$8.4130% below
100 week MA$8.1428% below
200 week MA$7.3720% below

EBS is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 20% below its 200-week average.

UNH Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$394.22.8% above
20 week MA$400.51.2% above
50 week MA$361.212% above
100 week MA$376.07.8% above
200 week MA$446.69.3% below

UNH has the edge over EBS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

EBS Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$54.0$93.8+74%
2021$93.8$45.5-51%
2022$45.5$11.0-76%
2023$11.0$2.40-78%
2024$2.40$8.27+245%
2025$8.27$12.4+50%
2026 YTD$12.4$5.89-53%

EBS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +245% in 2024 to −78% in 2023. It's down 53% so far in 2026.

UNH Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$296.0$340.8+15%
2021$340.8$495.4+45%
2022$495.4$531.3+7.3%
2023$531.3$526.5-0.9%
2024$526.5$510.0-3.1%
2025$510.0$331.8-35%
2026 YTD$331.8$405.1+22%

UNH has the edge over EBS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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