EBAY
eBay Inc.
EBAY has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
FOSL
Fossil Group, Inc.
FOSL has the edge over EBAY overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
EBAY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
EBAY's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
FOSL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
FOSL's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
EBAY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.9x | $31.50 | -74% |
| Fair | 16x | $71.96 | -40% |
| Forward | 18x | $120 | — |
| Expensive | 22x | $99.04 | -18% |
| Current | 26x | $120 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
EBAY's PE is in its expensive range at 26x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
FOSL PE Valuation
FOSL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
EBAY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for EBAY, with profitability holding steady.
FOSL Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for FOSL to show an outlook.
EBAY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.63 | +45% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.57 | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.82 | +7.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.40 | +6% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.34 | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.55 | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.49 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.15 | -17% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.94 | -24% |
EBAY has the edge over FOSL on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
FOSL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.32 | +$0.96 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.27 | -$0.15 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.13 | +$0.68 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.45 | +$0.49 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.28 | +$1.04 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.12 | +$1.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.81 | +$0.85 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.94 | +$1.06 |
FOSL is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.32 per share over the past year, against $3.00 at its worst in late 2023.
EBAY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.2B | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.1B | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1B | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.8B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7B | +6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.6B | +1.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.6B | +0.7% |
EBAY has the edge over FOSL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 22% | +3.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 20% | -4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | -0.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 20% | -2.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 24% | -0.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 21% | +5.1 points |
EBAY has the edge over FOSL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
FOSL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $271.2M | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $209.7M | -4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $224.8M | -3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $280.5M | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $270.2M | -6.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $220.4M | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | $233.3M | -8.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $342.3M | -19% |
FOSL's revenue has slid since its 2019 peak: $271M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.3% | +17 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.5% | -2.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +8.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | +5.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -8% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9% | +17 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.9% | +8.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -4.8% | +0.9 points |
FOSL's operating margin was 9.3% last quarter, up 17 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
EBAY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $749M | -6.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $300M | +$741M |
| Q1 2026 | $897M | +39% |
| Q4 2025 | $466M | -17% |
| Q3 2025 | $803M | +24% |
| Q2 2025 | -$441M | -259% |
| Q1 2025 | $644M | +36% |
| Q4 2024 | $560M | +$564M |
EBAY has the edge over FOSL on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
FOSL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $428K | +$22.9M |
| Q2 2026 | -$10.1M | -217% |
| Q1 2026 | -$22.7M | +$37.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $14.1M | -51% |
| Q3 2025 | -$22.5M | +$1.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $8.6M | -76% |
| Q1 2025 | -$60.6M | -$59.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $28.5M | -40% |
FOSL's free cash flow was −$18M over the past year, against −$46M the year before.
EBAY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | -3% | -14M shares |
| 3 years | -15% | -79M shares |
| 5 years | -31% | -205M shares |
| Available history | -44% | -359M shares |
EBAY has the edge over FOSL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $664M |
| Q2 2026 | $323M |
| Q1 2026 | $486M |
| Q4 2025 | $635M |
| Q3 2025 | $626M |
| Q2 2025 | $624M |
| Q1 2025 | $615M |
| Q4 2024 | $911M |
EBAY spent $2.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 24% from the year before.
FOSL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.6% | +2.1M shares |
| 1 year | +17% | +8.8M shares |
| 3 years | +17% | +8.7M shares |
| 5 years | +16% | +8.4M shares |
| Available history | +22% | +10.9M shares |
FOSL has 61M diluted shares, up 17% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $3,000 |
| Q4 2023 | $530,000 |
| Q3 2023 | — |
EBAY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.9x | Healthy |
EBAY has the edge over FOSL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
FOSL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 22.0x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 9.8x | High |
| Q4 2022 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q3 2022 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2022 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2022 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2021 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
FOSL's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.9 years a year ago.
EBAY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 61.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 80.0 | Overbought |
EBAY's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 80 (overbought).
FOSL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 76.5 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 80.5 | Overbought |
FOSL's weekly RSI is 76 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 81 (overbought).
EBAY PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | EBAY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 18x | 46% above |
| PE % | 91 | 47 | 44 pts above |
EBAY is trading at 26x earnings, a 46% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
FOSL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | FOSL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
FOSL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
EBAY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $116.5 | 3.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $112.4 | 6.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $102.6 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $89.8 | 34% above |
| 200 week MA | $69.5 | 73% above |
EBAY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 73% above its 200-week average.
FOSL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $7.11 | 23% above |
| 20 week MA | $5.78 | 51% above |
| 50 week MA | $4.83 | 81% above |
| 100 week MA | $3.34 | 162% above |
| 200 week MA | $2.63 | 232% above |
FOSL is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 232% above its 200-week average.
EBAY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $36.1 | $50.1 | +39% |
| 2021 | $50.1 | $64.9 | +29% |
| 2022 | $64.9 | $40.2 | -38% |
| 2023 | $40.2 | $43.6 | +8.6% |
| 2024 | $43.6 | $62.8 | +44% |
| 2025 | $62.8 | $85.2 | +36% |
| 2026 YTD | $85.2 | $120.1 | +41% |
EBAY has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 41% so far in 2026.
FOSL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $7.74 | $9.19 | +19% |
| 2021 | $9.19 | $10.2 | +11% |
| 2022 | $10.2 | $3.98 | -61% |
| 2023 | $3.98 | $1.46 | -63% |
| 2024 | $1.46 | $1.89 | +29% |
| 2025 | $1.89 | $3.85 | +104% |
| 2026 YTD | $3.85 | $8.74 | +127% |
FOSL has the edge over EBAY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.