CVNA
Carvana Co.
CVNA has the edge over NIO overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
NIO
NIO Inc.
NIO has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CVNA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
CVNA's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is weak.
NIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable |
NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CVNA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 34x | $70.84 | — |
| Forward | 35x | $70.84 | — |
| Cheap | 36x | $75.86 | +7.1% |
| Fair | 83x | $173 | +144% |
| Expensive | 113x | $235 | +231% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CVNA's PE is in its cheap range at 34x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 35x.
NIO PE Valuation
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CVNA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for CVNA, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
NIO has the edge over CVNA on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
CVNA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.05 | -1.4% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.08 | +136% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.89 | +136% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.73 | +204% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.69 | +428% |
| Q3 2023 | -$1.22 | +$0.57 |
| Q2 2023 | -$2.51 | -$1.18 |
| Q1 2023 | -$2.87 | -$2.06 |
| Q4 2022 | -$3.15 | -$2.82 |
CVNA has the edge over NIO on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.29 | +$1.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.60 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.59 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.74 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.76 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.66 | +$0.21 |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.61 | +$0.32 |
NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.
CVNA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8B | +42% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.4B | +52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.4B | +52% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.6B | +58% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.6B | +55% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.8B | +42% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.2B | +38% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.5B | +46% |
CVNA has the edge over NIO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.9% | -0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 9.2% | -1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 9% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.6% | +0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.8% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | +3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.3% | +4.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.3% | N/A |
CVNA has the edge over NIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +112% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B | -2.1% |
NIO's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $4.8B last quarter, up 69% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | +24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +52 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -26% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | -28% | -2.6 points |
NIO's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CVNA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $491M | +60% |
| Q2 2026 | $187M | +$189M |
| Q1 2026 | $56M | -73% |
| Q4 2025 | $379M | +953% |
| Q3 2025 | $307M | -18% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2M | -101% |
| Q1 2025 | $205M | +147% |
| Q4 2024 | $36M | +$293M |
CVNA has the edge over NIO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | +$391.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.1B | +$73.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | -$391.3M | -386% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.2B | +$337.9M |
NIO's free cash flow was $0 over the past year, against −$2.5B the year before.
CVNA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -50K shares |
| 1 year | +3.3% | +23.8M shares |
| 3 years | +40% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +123% | +408M shares |
CVNA has the edge over NIO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q3 2024 | $2M |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
NIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +15.6M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +267M shares |
| 3 years | +51% | +844M shares |
| 5 years | +60% | +933M shares |
| Available history | +143% | +1.5B shares |
NIO has 2.5B diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NIO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
CVNA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2021 | 186.0x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 128.9x | High |
CVNA's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
NIO Net Leverage
NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CVNA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 67.9 | Neutral |
CVNA's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
NIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.9 | Oversold |
NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CVNA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CVNA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 34x | 18x | 89% above |
| PE % | 8 | 47 | 39 pts below |
CVNA is trading at 34x earnings, a 89% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CVNA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $65.2 | 8.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $67.3 | 5.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $71.3 | 0.7% below |
| 100 week MA | $64.7 | 9.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $40.2 | 76% above |
CVNA has the edge over NIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.36 | 9.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.01 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.81 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.85 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.03 | 49% below |
NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.
CVNA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $19.6 | $54.9 | +181% |
| 2021 | $54.9 | $48.2 | -12% |
| 2022 | $48.2 | $0.81 | -98% |
| 2023 | $0.81 | $10.6 | +1207% |
| 2024 | $10.6 | $43.0 | +306% |
| 2025 | $43.0 | $87.7 | +104% |
| 2026 YTD | $87.7 | $70.8 | -19% |
CVNA has the edge over NIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.42 | $45.8 | +1791% |
| 2021 | $45.8 | $30.5 | -33% |
| 2022 | $30.5 | $11.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $9.07 | -17% |
| 2024 | $9.07 | $4.48 | -51% |
| 2025 | $4.48 | $5.10 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.10 | $3.05 | -40% |
NIO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1791% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.