CVLG

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.

49
Fundamentals42/ 100
Valuation16/ 100
Upside potential78/ 100
Risk potential14/ 100

CVLG has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.

RDW

Redwire Corporation

61
Fundamentals66/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential68/ 100
Risk potential52/ 100

RDW has the edge over CVLG overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.

CVLG Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Stable
Under pressure
Stable

CVLG's revenue is currently healthy, and its profitability and balance sheet are stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.

RDW Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Under pressure
Under pressure
Unavailable

RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

CVLG PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE62x123x185x246x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE62x123x185x246x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap5.9x$1.24-96%
Forward13x$32.82—
Fair16x$3.45-90%
Expensive82x$17.22-48%
Current156x$32.82—

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

CVLG's PE is in its expensive range at 156x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 13x next year's earnings, in its fair range.

RDW PE Valuation

RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

CVLG Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CVLG, with profitability improving.

RDW Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Losses shrinking
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect RDW's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.

CVLG Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+52%$49.84
Downside-14%$28.12

Calculated from the latest close: $32.82 on Nov 12.

CVLG has a better modeled risk to reward balance than RDW, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

RDW Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+109%$16.79
Downside-52%$3.87

Calculated from the latest close: $8.03 on Nov 12.

RDW trails CVLG on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

CVLG Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $2.00Q1 2024: $1.54Q2 2024: $1.53Q3 2024: $1.50Q4 2024: $1.30Q1 2025: $1.40Q2 2025: $1.31Q3 2025: $1.19Q4 2025: $0.27Q1 2026: $0.20Q2 2026: $0.16Q3 2026: $0.21Forward: $2.56
Q4 2023: $2.00Q1 2024: $1.54Q2 2024: $1.53Q3 2024: $1.50Q4 2024: $1.30Q1 2025: $1.40Q2 2025: $1.31Q3 2025: $1.19Q4 2025: $0.27Q1 2026: $0.20Q2 2026: $0.16Q3 2026: $0.21Forward: $2.56
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.56+1120%
Q3 2026$0.21-82%
Q2 2026$0.16-88%
Q1 2026$0.20-86%
Q4 2025$0.27-79%
Q3 2025$1.19-21%
Q2 2025$1.31-14%
Q1 2025$1.40-9.1%
Q4 2024$1.30-35%

CVLG has the edge over RDW on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

RDW Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-0.73Q1 2024: $-0.72Q2 2024: $-0.98Q3 2024: $-1.21Q4 2024: $-2.35Q1 2025: $-2.27Q2 2025: $-3.26Q3 2025: $-3.18Q4 2025: $-2.28Q1 2026: $-2.59Q2 2026: $-1.37Q3 2026: $-1.17
Q4 2023: $-0.73Q1 2024: $-0.72Q2 2024: $-0.98Q3 2024: $-1.21Q4 2024: $-2.35Q1 2025: $-2.27Q2 2025: $-3.26Q3 2025: $-3.18Q4 2025: $-2.28Q1 2026: $-2.59Q2 2026: $-1.37Q3 2026: $-1.17
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026-$1.17+$2.01
Q2 2026-$1.37+$1.89
Q1 2026-$2.59-$0.32
Q4 2025-$2.28+$0.07
Q3 2025-$3.18-$1.97
Q2 2025-$3.26-$2.28
Q1 2025-$2.27-$1.55
Q4 2024-$2.35-$1.62

RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.

CVLG Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $274MQ1 2024: $279MQ2 2024: $287MQ3 2024: $288MQ4 2024: $277MQ1 2025: $269MQ2 2025: $303MQ3 2025: $297MQ4 2025: $295MQ1 2026: $307MQ2 2026: $333MQ3 2026: $354M
Q4 2023: $274MQ1 2024: $279MQ2 2024: $287MQ3 2024: $288MQ4 2024: $277MQ1 2025: $269MQ2 2025: $303MQ3 2025: $297MQ4 2025: $295MQ1 2026: $307MQ2 2026: $333MQ3 2026: $354M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$353.9M+19%
Q2 2026$332.9M+9.9%
Q1 2026$307.2M+14%
Q4 2025$295.4M+6.5%
Q3 2025$296.9M+3.1%
Q2 2025$302.9M+5.3%
Q1 2025$269.4M-3.4%
Q4 2024$277.3M+1.2%

CVLG's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $354M last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.

RDW Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $63MQ1 2024: $88MQ2 2024: $78MQ3 2024: $69MQ4 2024: $70MQ1 2025: $61MQ2 2025: $62MQ3 2025: $103MQ4 2025: $109MQ1 2026: $97MQ2 2026: $117MQ3 2026: $109M
Q4 2023: $63MQ1 2024: $88MQ2 2024: $78MQ3 2024: $69MQ4 2024: $70MQ1 2025: $61MQ2 2025: $62MQ3 2025: $103MQ4 2025: $109MQ1 2026: $97MQ2 2026: $117MQ3 2026: $109M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$109M+5.4%
Q2 2026$117.1M+90%
Q1 2026$97M+58%
Q4 2025$108.8M+56%
Q3 2025$103.4M+51%
Q2 2025$61.8M-21%
Q1 2025$61.4M-30%
Q4 2024$69.6M+9.6%

RDW's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $109M last quarter, up 5.4% from the same quarter a year ago.

CVLG Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$74MQ1 2024: −$27MQ2 2024: −$28MQ3 2024: $24MQ4 2024: $464,000Q1 2025: −$9MQ2 2025: −$15MQ3 2025: −$8MQ4 2025: −$3MQ1 2026: $18MQ2 2026: −$45MQ3 2026: −$7M
Q4 2023: −$74MQ1 2024: −$27MQ2 2024: −$28MQ3 2024: $24MQ4 2024: $464,000Q1 2025: −$9MQ2 2025: −$15MQ3 2025: −$8MQ4 2025: −$3MQ1 2026: $18MQ2 2026: −$45MQ3 2026: −$7M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$7.1M+$687K
Q2 2026-$44.7M-$30.1M
Q1 2026$17.6M+$26.2M
Q4 2025-$3M-742%
Q3 2025-$7.8M-132%
Q2 2025-$14.5M+$13.6M
Q1 2025-$8.6M+$18.1M
Q4 2024$464K+$74.2M

CVLG has the edge over RDW on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

RDW Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $14MQ1 2024: $1MQ2 2024: −$10MQ3 2024: −$19MQ4 2024: $5MQ1 2025: −$47MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$27MQ4 2025: −$26MQ1 2026: −$11MQ2 2026: −$33MQ3 2026: −$65M
Q4 2023: $14MQ1 2024: $1MQ2 2024: −$10MQ3 2024: −$19MQ4 2024: $5MQ1 2025: −$47MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$27MQ4 2025: −$26MQ1 2026: −$11MQ2 2026: −$33MQ3 2026: −$65M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$65.3M-$38.5M
Q2 2026-$33.5M+$57.2M
Q1 2026-$11.4M+$35.5M
Q4 2025-$26.5M-659%
Q3 2025-$26.9M-$7.6M
Q2 2025-$90.6M-$80.2M
Q1 2025-$46.9M-3996%
Q4 2024$4.7M-65%

RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.

CVLG Total Shares

Q4 2023: 28MQ1 2024: 28MQ2 2024: 28MQ3 2024: 28MQ4 2024: 28MQ1 2025: 28MQ2 2025: 27MQ3 2025: 26MQ4 2025: 27MQ1 2026: 26MQ2 2026: 27MQ3 2026: 27M
Q4 2023: 28MQ1 2024: 28MQ2 2024: 28MQ3 2024: 28MQ4 2024: 28MQ1 2025: 28MQ2 2025: 27MQ3 2025: 26MQ4 2025: 27MQ1 2026: 26MQ2 2026: 27MQ3 2026: 27M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.1%+14K shares
1 year+1.1%+302K shares
3 years-2.8%-755K shares
5 years-22%-7.3M shares
Available history-29%-10.7M shares

CVLG has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

RDW Total Shares

Q4 2023: 65MQ1 2024: 66MQ2 2024: 66MQ3 2024: 67MQ4 2024: 66MQ1 2025: 71MQ2 2025: 90MQ3 2025: 146MQ1 2026: 194MQ2 2026: 220MQ3 2026: 250M
Q4 2023: 65MQ1 2024: 66MQ2 2024: 66MQ3 2024: 67MQ4 2024: 66MQ1 2025: 71MQ2 2025: 90MQ3 2025: 146MQ1 2026: 194MQ2 2026: 220MQ3 2026: 250M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+13%+29.6M shares
1 year+179%+160M shares
3 years+289%+186M shares
5 years+319%+190M shares

RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.

CVLG Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 1.9xQ1 2024: 2.0xQ2 2024: 2.1xQ3 2024: 1.7xQ4 2024: 1.6xQ1 2025: 1.6xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 2.1xQ4 2025: 3.1xQ1 2026: 2.5xQ2 2026: 3.1xQ3 2026: 2.9x
Q4 2023: 1.9xQ1 2024: 2.0xQ2 2024: 2.1xQ3 2024: 1.7xQ4 2024: 1.6xQ1 2025: 1.6xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 2.1xQ4 2025: 3.1xQ1 2026: 2.5xQ2 2026: 3.1xQ3 2026: 2.9x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20262.9xModerate
Q2 20263.1xElevated
Q1 20262.5xModerate
Q4 20253.1xElevated
Q3 20252.1xModerate
Q2 20252.0xModerate
Q1 20251.6xHealthy
Q4 20241.6xHealthy

CVLG's net debt is about 2.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.1 years a year ago.

RDW Net Leverage

RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

CVLG Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI47.2Neutral
Stochastic35.2Neutral

CVLG's weekly RSI is 47 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 35 (neutral).

RDW Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI42.3Neutral
Stochastic16.1Oversold

RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).

CVLG PE vs Industrials Sector

MetricCVLGSector medianRelative
PE156x24x549% above
PE %905832 pts above

CVLG is trading at 156x earnings, a 549% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.

RDW PE vs Industrials Sector

RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

CVLG Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$31.73.6% above
20 week MA$35.98.5% below
50 week MA$32.60.8% above
100 week MA$27.918% above
200 week MA$25.429% above

CVLG has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

RDW Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$9.0611% below
20 week MA$10.120% below
50 week MA$10.624% below
100 week MA$11.631% below
200 week MA$8.070.5% below

RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.

CVLG Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$6.45$7.70+19%
2021$7.70$12.0+56%
2022$12.0$18.0+49%
2023$18.0$23.0+28%
2024$23.0$27.3+19%
2025$27.3$22.4-18%
2026 YTD$22.4$32.8+46%

CVLG has the edge over RDW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

RDW Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2021$10.2$7.34-28%
2022$7.34$1.92-74%
2023$1.92$2.85+48%
2024$2.85$17.1+501%
2025$17.1$7.15-58%
2026 YTD$7.15$8.03+12%

RDW's yearly returns have swung widely, from +501% in 2024 to −74% in 2022. It's up 12% so far in 2026.

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