COLL
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.
COLL trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO has the edge over COLL overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
COLL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
COLL's cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
COLL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 3.5x | $24.95 | — |
| Cheap | 13x | $12.57 | -50% |
| Fair | 19x | $19.08 | -24% |
| Current | 25x | $24.95 | — |
| Expensive | 34x | $33.57 | +35% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
COLL's PE is in its expensive range at 25x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 3.5x, in its cheap range.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO has the edge over COLL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
COLL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect COLL's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
COLL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.07 | +607% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.00 | -38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.24 | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.04 | +67% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.71 | -8.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.61 | -31% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.04 | -60% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.22 | -49% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.86 | +58% |
COLL's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.00 over the past year, against $2.72 in mid-2021.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO has the edge over COLL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
COLL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $216.3M | +3.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $199.9M | +6.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $193.5M | +8.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $205.4M | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $209.4M | +31% |
| Q2 2025 | $188M | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $177.8M | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $181.9M | +22% |
COLL has the edge over NVO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | -16 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9% | -17 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | +3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 30% | +8.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 30% | +7.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | -14 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | -22 points |
| Q4 2024 | 21% | -20 points |
COLL's operating margin was 13% last quarter, down 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO's revenue is growing: $11.7B last quarter, up 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over COLL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
COLL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $86.3M | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $70.8M | -2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $56.8M | +4.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $122.4M | +46% |
| Q3 2025 | $78.3M | +$87.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $72.4M | +7.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $54.6M | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $84.1M | +15% |
COLL has the edge over NVO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $7.3B over the past year.
COLL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +20% | +6.7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -329K shares |
| 3 years | -7% | -2.9M shares |
| 5 years | +7.9% | +2.8M shares |
| Available history | +16% | +5.5M shares |
COLL has the edge over NVO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $25M |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $25M |
| Q4 2022 | $7.6M |
| Q4 2021 | $32.3M |
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has 4.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
COLL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
COLL has the edge over NVO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
COLL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
COLL's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
COLL PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | COLL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 26x | 3.5% below |
| PE % | 66 | 29 | 37 pts above |
COLL is trading at 25x earnings, in line with the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO has the edge over COLL on valuation relative to its sector.
COLL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $23.2 | 7.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $27.2 | 8.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $34.7 | 28% below |
| 100 week MA | $33.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $31.6 | 21% below |
COLL has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 21% below its 200-week average.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
COLL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $21.0 | $18.6 | -12% |
| 2021 | $18.6 | $19.5 | +4.9% |
| 2022 | $19.5 | $23.0 | +18% |
| 2023 | $23.0 | $30.8 | +34% |
| 2024 | $30.8 | $29.1 | -5.4% |
| 2025 | $29.1 | $49.8 | +71% |
| 2026 YTD | $49.8 | $25.0 | -50% |
COLL is down 50% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in four of the previous six years.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has the edge over COLL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.