COLL
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.
COLL trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over COLL overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
COLL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
COLL's cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
COLL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 3.5x | $24.95 | — |
| Cheap | 13x | $12.57 | -50% |
| Fair | 19x | $19.08 | -24% |
| Current | 25x | $24.95 | — |
| Expensive | 34x | $33.57 | +35% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
COLL's PE is in its expensive range at 25x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 3.5x, in its cheap range.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY has the edge over COLL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
COLL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect COLL's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over COLL on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
COLL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.07 | +607% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.00 | -38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.24 | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.04 | +67% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.71 | -8.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.61 | -31% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.04 | -60% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.22 | -49% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.86 | +58% |
COLL's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.00 over the past year, against $2.72 in mid-2021.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.83 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over COLL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
COLL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $216.3M | +3.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $199.9M | +6.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $193.5M | +8.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $205.4M | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $209.4M | +31% |
| Q2 2025 | $188M | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $177.8M | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $181.9M | +22% |
COLL's revenue has grown year over year for 18 quarters in a row: $216M last quarter, up 3.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | -16 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9% | -17 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | +3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 30% | +8.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 30% | +7.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | -14 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | -22 points |
| Q4 2024 | 21% | -20 points |
COLL's operating margin was 13% last quarter, down 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over COLL on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over COLL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
COLL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $86.3M | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $70.8M | -2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $56.8M | +4.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $122.4M | +46% |
| Q3 2025 | $78.3M | +$87.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $72.4M | +7.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $54.6M | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $84.1M | +15% |
COLL generated $336M in free cash flow over the past year, up 16% from the year before.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY generated $19.7B in free cash flow over the past year, up 112% from the year before.
COLL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +20% | +6.7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -329K shares |
| 3 years | -7% | -2.9M shares |
| 5 years | +7.9% | +2.8M shares |
| Available history | +16% | +5.5M shares |
COLL has the edge over LLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $25M |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $25M |
| Q4 2022 | $7.6M |
| Q4 2021 | $32.3M |
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has 893M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
COLL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
COLL has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
COLL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
COLL's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
COLL PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | COLL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 26x | 3.5% below |
| PE % | 66 | 29 | 37 pts above |
COLL has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
COLL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $23.2 | 7.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $27.2 | 8.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $34.7 | 28% below |
| 100 week MA | $33.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $31.6 | 21% below |
COLL has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 21% below its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over COLL on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
COLL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $21.0 | $18.6 | -12% |
| 2021 | $18.6 | $19.5 | +4.9% |
| 2022 | $19.5 | $23.0 | +18% |
| 2023 | $23.0 | $30.8 | +34% |
| 2024 | $30.8 | $29.1 | -5.4% |
| 2025 | $29.1 | $49.8 | +71% |
| 2026 YTD | $49.8 | $25.0 | -50% |
COLL is down 50% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in four of the previous six years.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over COLL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.