CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
CMG has the edge over RIVN overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CMG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
CMG's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
RIVN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CMG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 28x | $35.17 | — |
| Current | 33x | $35.17 | — |
| Cheap | 37x | $39.28 | +12% |
| Fair | 56x | $59.81 | +70% |
| Expensive | 91x | $97.34 | +177% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CMG's PE is in its cheap range at 33x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 28x next year's earnings.
RIVN PE Valuation
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CMG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CMG, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RIVN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect RIVN's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CMG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.07 | -5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.09 | -2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -3.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.14 | +2.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.13 | +5.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.12 | +9.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.13 | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.11 | +25% |
CMG has the edge over RIVN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RIVN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.25 | +$0.83 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.58 | +$0.62 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.92 | +$0.77 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.07 | +$1.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.08 | +$2.52 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.20 | +$2.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.69 | +$2.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.69 | +$1.05 |
RIVN is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.25 per share over the past year, against $7.40 at its worst in late 2022.
CMG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.3B | +9.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3B | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1B | +7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3B | +4.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $3B | +7.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.1B | +3% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.9B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.8B | +13% |
CMG's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $3.3B last quarter, up 9.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | -2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 17% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +0.2 points |
CMG has the edge over RIVN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RIVN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +78% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +32% |
RIVN's revenue is growing: $2.2B last quarter, up 38% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -41% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -50% | +35 points |
| Q1 2026 | -64% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | -65% | -27 points |
| Q3 2025 | -63% | +71 points |
| Q2 2025 | -86% | +33 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +70 points |
| Q4 2024 | -38% | +82 points |
RIVN's operating margin was −41% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
CMG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $347.1M | -15% |
| Q2 2026 | $463.4M | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $471M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $228.4M | -35% |
| Q3 2025 | $406.2M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $400.7M | -5.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $412.3M | -5.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $353.9M | +278% |
CMG has the edge over RIVN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RIVN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.1B | -$703M |
| Q2 2026 | -$849M | -$451M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -$549M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -234% |
| Q3 2025 | -$421M | +$732M |
| Q2 2025 | -$398M | +$639M |
| Q1 2025 | -$526M | +$997M |
| Q4 2024 | $856M | +$2.3B |
RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.
CMG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -11.4M shares |
| 1 year | -5.4% | -71.8M shares |
| 3 years | -8.4% | -116M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -156M shares |
| Available history | -10% | -147M shares |
CMG has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $110M |
| Q2 2026 | $653.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $701M |
| Q4 2025 | $741.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $686.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $443.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $553.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $339M |
CMG spent $2.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 9.1% from the year before.
RIVN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.1% | +121M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +226M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +494M shares |
RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $6M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
CMG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
CMG has more cash than debt.
RIVN Net Leverage
RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CMG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.0 | Neutral |
CMG's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 56 (neutral).
RIVN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
CMG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CMG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33x | 18x | 82% above |
| PE % | 11 | 47 | 36 pts below |
CMG is trading at 33x earnings, a 82% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CMG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $31.8 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $33.8 | 4.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $34.6 | 1.7% above |
| 100 week MA | $41.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $44.6 | 21% below |
CMG has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RIVN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.3 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.9 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.7 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
CMG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $16.7 | $28.3 | +69% |
| 2021 | $28.3 | $35.0 | +24% |
| 2022 | $35.0 | $28.3 | -19% |
| 2023 | $28.3 | $45.7 | +62% |
| 2024 | $45.7 | $60.8 | +33% |
| 2025 | $60.8 | $37.8 | -38% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.8 | $35.2 | -7% |
CMG has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
RIVN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $130.0 | $96.8 | -25% |
| 2022 | $96.8 | $19.1 | -80% |
| 2023 | $19.1 | $23.5 | +23% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $13.7 | -42% |
| 2025 | $13.7 | $20.9 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.9 | $12.8 | -39% |
RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.