CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
CMG's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks cheap: trading at 33x earnings, below its usual 56x. Analysts expect earnings growth, though they disagree widely on how much.
CMG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
CMG's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CMG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 28x | $35.17 | — |
| Current | 33x | $35.17 | — |
| Cheap | 37x | $39.28 | +12% |
| Fair | 56x | $59.81 | +70% |
| Expensive | 91x | $97.34 | +177% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CMG's PE is in its cheap range at 33x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 28x next year's earnings.
CMG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CMG, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CMG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.07 | -5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.09 | -2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -3.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.14 | +2.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.13 | +5.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.12 | +9.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.13 | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.11 | +25% |
CMG earned $1.07 per share over the past year, down 5.3% from the year before.
CMG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.3B | +9.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3B | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1B | +7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3B | +4.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $3B | +7.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.1B | +3% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.9B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.8B | +13% |
CMG's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $3.3B last quarter, up 9.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | -2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 17% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +0.2 points |
CMG's operating margin was 14% last quarter, down 2.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CMG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $347.1M | -15% |
| Q2 2026 | $463.4M | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $471M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $228.4M | -35% |
| Q3 2025 | $406.2M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $400.7M | -5.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $412.3M | -5.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $353.9M | +278% |
CMG generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the past year, down 4% from the year before.
CMG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -11.4M shares |
| 1 year | -5.4% | -71.8M shares |
| 3 years | -8.4% | -116M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -156M shares |
| Available history | -10% | -147M shares |
CMG has 1.3B diluted shares, down 5.4% from a year ago, with $2.2B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $110M |
| Q2 2026 | $653.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $701M |
| Q4 2025 | $741.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $686.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $443.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $553.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $339M |
CMG spent $2.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 9.1% from the year before.
CMG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
CMG has more cash than debt.
CMG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.0 | Neutral |
CMG's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 56 (neutral).
CMG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CMG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33x | 18x | 82% above |
| PE % | 11 | 47 | 36 pts below |
CMG is trading at 33x earnings, a 82% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
CMG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $31.8 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $33.8 | 4.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $34.6 | 1.7% above |
| 100 week MA | $41.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $44.6 | 21% below |
CMG has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 21% below its 200-week average.
CMG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $16.7 | $28.3 | +69% |
| 2021 | $28.3 | $35.0 | +24% |
| 2022 | $35.0 | $28.3 | -19% |
| 2023 | $28.3 | $45.7 | +62% |
| 2024 | $45.7 | $60.8 | +33% |
| 2025 | $60.8 | $37.8 | -38% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.8 | $35.2 | -7% |
CMG has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 7% so far in 2026.