CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
CMG has the edge over NKE overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CMG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
CMG's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
CMG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 28x | $35.17 | — |
| Current | 33x | $35.17 | — |
| Cheap | 37x | $39.28 | +12% |
| Fair | 56x | $59.81 | +70% |
| Expensive | 91x | $97.34 | +177% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CMG's PE is in its cheap range at 33x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 28x next year's earnings.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE has the edge over CMG in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CMG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CMG has the edge over NKE on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CMG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.07 | -5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.09 | -2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -3.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.14 | +2.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.13 | +5.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.12 | +9.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.13 | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.11 | +25% |
CMG has the edge over NKE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.09 over the past year, against $3.82 in late 2021.
CMG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.3B | +9.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3B | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1B | +7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3B | +4.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $3B | +7.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.1B | +3% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.9B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.8B | +13% |
CMG has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | -2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 17% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +0.2 points |
CMG has the edge over NKE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE's operating margin was 8.2% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
CMG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $347.1M | -15% |
| Q2 2026 | $463.4M | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $471M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $228.4M | -35% |
| Q3 2025 | $406.2M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $400.7M | -5.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $412.3M | -5.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $353.9M | +278% |
CMG has the edge over NKE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
CMG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -11.4M shares |
| 1 year | -5.4% | -71.8M shares |
| 3 years | -8.4% | -116M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -156M shares |
| Available history | -10% | -147M shares |
CMG has the edge over NKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $110M |
| Q2 2026 | $653.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $701M |
| Q4 2025 | $741.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $686.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $443.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $553.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $339M |
CMG spent $2.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 9.1% from the year before.
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
CMG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
CMG has the edge over NKE on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CMG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.0 | Neutral |
CMG's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 56 (neutral).
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
CMG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CMG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33x | 18x | 82% above |
| PE % | 11 | 47 | 36 pts below |
CMG is trading at 33x earnings, a 82% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE has the edge over CMG on valuation relative to its sector.
CMG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $31.8 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $33.8 | 4.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $34.6 | 1.7% above |
| 100 week MA | $41.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $44.6 | 21% below |
CMG has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
CMG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $16.7 | $28.3 | +69% |
| 2021 | $28.3 | $35.0 | +24% |
| 2022 | $35.0 | $28.3 | -19% |
| 2023 | $28.3 | $45.7 | +62% |
| 2024 | $45.7 | $60.8 | +33% |
| 2025 | $60.8 | $37.8 | -38% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.8 | $35.2 | -7% |
CMG has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.