CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
CMG has the edge over NIO overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
NIO
NIO Inc.
NIO offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CMG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
CMG's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable |
NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CMG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 28x | $35.17 | — |
| Current | 33x | $35.17 | — |
| Cheap | 37x | $39.28 | +12% |
| Fair | 56x | $59.81 | +70% |
| Expensive | 91x | $97.34 | +177% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CMG's PE is in its cheap range at 33x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 28x next year's earnings.
NIO PE Valuation
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CMG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CMG, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect NIO's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
CMG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.07 | -5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.09 | -2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -3.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.14 | +2.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.13 | +5.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.12 | +9.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.13 | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.11 | +25% |
CMG has the edge over NIO on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.29 | +$1.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.60 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.59 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.74 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.76 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.66 | +$0.21 |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.61 | +$0.32 |
NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.
CMG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.3B | +9.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3B | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1B | +7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3B | +4.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $3B | +7.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.1B | +3% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.9B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.8B | +13% |
CMG's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $3.3B last quarter, up 9.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | -2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 17% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +0.2 points |
CMG has the edge over NIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +112% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B | -2.1% |
NIO's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $4.8B last quarter, up 69% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | +24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +52 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -26% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | -28% | -2.6 points |
NIO's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CMG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $347.1M | -15% |
| Q2 2026 | $463.4M | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $471M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $228.4M | -35% |
| Q3 2025 | $406.2M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $400.7M | -5.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $412.3M | -5.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $353.9M | +278% |
CMG generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the past year, down 4% from the year before.
NIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | +$391.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.1B | +$73.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | -$391.3M | -386% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.2B | +$337.9M |
NIO's free cash flow was $0 over the past year, against −$2.5B the year before.
CMG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -11.4M shares |
| 1 year | -5.4% | -71.8M shares |
| 3 years | -8.4% | -116M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -156M shares |
| Available history | -10% | -147M shares |
CMG has the edge over NIO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $110M |
| Q2 2026 | $653.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $701M |
| Q4 2025 | $741.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $686.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $443.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $553.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $339M |
CMG spent $2.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 9.1% from the year before.
NIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +15.6M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +267M shares |
| 3 years | +51% | +844M shares |
| 5 years | +60% | +933M shares |
| Available history | +143% | +1.5B shares |
NIO has 2.5B diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NIO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
CMG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
CMG has more cash than debt.
NIO Net Leverage
NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CMG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.0 | Neutral |
CMG's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 56 (neutral).
NIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.9 | Oversold |
NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CMG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CMG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33x | 18x | 82% above |
| PE % | 11 | 47 | 36 pts below |
CMG is trading at 33x earnings, a 82% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CMG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $31.8 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $33.8 | 4.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $34.6 | 1.7% above |
| 100 week MA | $41.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $44.6 | 21% below |
CMG has the edge over NIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.36 | 9.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.01 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.81 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.85 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.03 | 49% below |
NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.
CMG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $16.7 | $28.3 | +69% |
| 2021 | $28.3 | $35.0 | +24% |
| 2022 | $35.0 | $28.3 | -19% |
| 2023 | $28.3 | $45.7 | +62% |
| 2024 | $45.7 | $60.8 | +33% |
| 2025 | $60.8 | $37.8 | -38% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.8 | $35.2 | -7% |
CMG has the edge over NIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.42 | $45.8 | +1791% |
| 2021 | $45.8 | $30.5 | -33% |
| 2022 | $30.5 | $11.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $9.07 | -17% |
| 2024 | $9.07 | $4.48 | -51% |
| 2025 | $4.48 | $5.10 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.10 | $3.05 | -40% |
NIO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1791% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.