CME
CME Group Inc.
CME offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over CME overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
CME Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
CME's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like CME.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
CME PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 24x | $289 | -8.3% |
| Forward | 24x | $316 | — |
| Fair | 26x | $314 | -0.4% |
| Current | 26x | $316 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $405 | +28% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CME has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
CME Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CME, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
CME Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $12.95 | +6.2% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.19 | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.79 | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.72 | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.16 | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.32 | +8.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $10.33 | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.94 | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $9.67 | +9.1% |
CME's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.19 over the past year, up 18% from the year before, and higher year over year for 21 quarters in a row. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over CME on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
CME Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.9B | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | +8.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.5B | -3% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.7B | +10% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.6B | +10% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | +6% |
CME's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $1.7B last quarter, up 13% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 66% | +2.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 65% | -1.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 70% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 62% | -0.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 63% | -1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 67% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 67% | +3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 62% | +2.1 points |
CME has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over CME on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CME Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $923.5M | -11% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $949.7M | -2.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | +37% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | +26% |
| Q4 2024 | $991.7M | -3.1% |
CME has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CME Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -2.6M shares |
| 1 year | -0.5% | -1.8M shares |
| 3 years | -0.3% | -978K shares |
| 5 years | -0.1% | -347K shares |
| Available history | +0.1% | +402K shares |
CME has 359M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over CME on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
CME Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2020 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2020 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2020 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2019 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
CME has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like CME.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CME Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 65.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 89.3 | Overbought |
CME's weekly RSI is 65 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 89 (overbought).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
CME PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | CME | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 13x | 99% above |
| PE % | 51 | 63 | 12 pts below |
CME is trading at 26x earnings, a 99% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x, though its earnings don't support one.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over CME on valuation relative to its sector.
CME Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $291.5 | 8.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $275.2 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $280.9 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $272.5 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $238.3 | 32% above |
CME has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
CME Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $202.8 | $178.5 | -12% |
| 2021 | $178.5 | $229.0 | +28% |
| 2022 | $229.0 | $173.3 | -24% |
| 2023 | $173.3 | $210.6 | +22% |
| 2024 | $210.6 | $233.5 | +11% |
| 2025 | $233.5 | $276.7 | +19% |
| 2026 YTD | $276.7 | $315.5 | +14% |
CME has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.