CINF
Cincinnati Financial Corporation
CINF trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over CINF overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
CINF Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
CINF's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like CINF.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
CINF PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.5x | $128 | -33% |
| Fair | 10x | $174 | -8.6% |
| Current | 11x | $190 | — |
| Expensive | 19x | $327 | +72% |
| Forward | 21x | $190 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CINF has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
CINF Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect CINF's earnings, revenue and profitability to hold roughly steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over CINF on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
CINF Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.94 | -48% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.05 | +27% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.20 | +84% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.49 | +91% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.17 | +4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.45 | -31% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.54 | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.18 | -39% |
| Q4 2024 | $14.53 | +25% |
CINF earned $17.05 per share over the past year, up 27% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over CINF on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CINF Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3B | -18% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.3B | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.1B | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.7B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.2B | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.6B | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.5B | -24% |
CINF's revenue is growing: $3B last quarter, down 18% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 18% | -20 points |
| Q2 2026 | 37% | +11 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | +16 points |
| Q4 2025 | 27% | +8.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 38% | +6.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 26% | +11 points |
| Q1 2025 | -5% | -38 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | -26 points |
CINF's operating margin was 18% last quarter, down 20 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over CINF on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over CINF on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CINF Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $787M | -29% |
| Q2 2026 | $698M | -5.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $654M | +113% |
| Q4 2025 | $939M | +47% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | +22% |
| Q2 2025 | $737M | 0% |
| Q1 2025 | $307M | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $638M | +12% |
CINF has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CINF Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -600K shares |
| 1 year | -1.7% | -2.7M shares |
| 3 years | -1.1% | -1.8M shares |
| 5 years | -4.8% | -7.8M shares |
| Available history | -6.1% | -10M shares |
CINF has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1M |
| Q2 2026 | $216M |
| Q1 2026 | $179M |
| Q4 2025 | $103M |
| Q3 2025 | $60M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $42M |
| Q4 2024 | $5M |
CINF spent $499M buying back its own shares over the past year, about five times what it spent the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
CINF Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2022 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2021 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2021 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2021 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2021 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2020 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2020 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
CINF has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like CINF.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CINF Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 66.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 79.4 | Neutral |
CINF's weekly RSI is 66 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 79 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
CINF PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | CINF | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 13x | 14% below |
| PE % | 58 | 63 | 5 pts below |
CINF has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
CINF Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $174.1 | 9.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $175.3 | 8.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $168.6 | 13% above |
| 100 week MA | $158.2 | 20% above |
| 200 week MA | $137.0 | 39% above |
CINF has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
CINF Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $103.9 | $85.2 | -18% |
| 2021 | $85.2 | $112.3 | +32% |
| 2022 | $112.3 | $104.5 | -7% |
| 2023 | $104.5 | $103.5 | -1% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $144.1 | +39% |
| 2025 | $144.1 | $164.8 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $164.8 | $190.3 | +15% |
CINF has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.