CIEN
Ciena Corporation
CIEN has the edge over INTC overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
INTC
Intel Corporation
INTC offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CIEN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
CIEN's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
INTC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
INTC's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its profitability is under pressure.
CIEN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 21x | $94.56 | -68% |
| Forward | 24x | $294 | — |
| Fair | 32x | $142 | -52% |
| Current | 66x | $294 | — |
| Expensive | 133x | $595 | +103% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CIEN's PE is in its expensive range at 66x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 24x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
INTC PE Valuation
INTC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CIEN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for CIEN, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
INTC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Broad | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for INTC, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CIEN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $12.01 | +168% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.48 | +357% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.00 | +311% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.57 | +185% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.85 | +47% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.98 | +4.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.73 | -30% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.55 | -64% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.58 | -66% |
CIEN has the edge over INTC on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
INTC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.41 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$2.39 | -24000% |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.09 | +$2.68 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$3.88 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.06 | +$4.32 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.01 | +$3.72 |
| Q2 2025 | -$4.77 | -2088% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.48 | -562% |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.38 | -1195% |
INTC has swung to a loss: it lost $2.39 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
CIEN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B | +37% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +29% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | +3.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | -0.5% |
CIEN has the edge over INTC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 18% | +12 points |
| Q2 2026 | 15% | +12 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +5.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.8% | -4.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6% | +3.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | +3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.3% | -2.8 points |
CIEN has the edge over INTC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
INTC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $16.5B | +21% |
| Q2 2026 | $16.1B | +25% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.6B | +7.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.7B | -4.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.7B | +2.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $12.9B | +0.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | -0.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $14.3B | -7.4% |
INTC's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $16.5B last quarter, up 21% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2026 | 11% | +36 points |
| Q1 2026 | -23% | -21 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.2% | +1.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5% | +73 points |
| Q2 2025 | -25% | -9.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.4% | +6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.9% | -14 points |
INTC's operating margin was 15% last quarter, up 10 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CIEN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $116.3M | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $218.7M | +71% |
| Q1 2026 | $153.8M | +100% |
| Q4 2025 | $325.6M | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $134.6M | +$313.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $128.2M | +208% |
| Q1 2025 | $76.8M | -69% |
| Q4 2024 | $265.8M | +54% |
CIEN generated $814M in free cash flow over the past year, up 35% from the year before.
INTC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +774% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.5B | +$6B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.5B | +$1.8B |
| Q4 2025 | $800M | +$3.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $121M | +$2.5B |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.5B | +$1.9B |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.4B | +$2.8B |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.7B | -$597M |
INTC has the edge over CIEN on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CIEN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -347K shares |
| 1 year | +1% | +1.5M shares |
| 3 years | -2.7% | -4M shares |
| 5 years | -6.9% | -10.8M shares |
| Available history | -7.4% | -11.6M shares |
CIEN has the edge over INTC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $173M |
| Q2 2026 | $84.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $80.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $84.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $81.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $87M |
| Q1 2025 | $81.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $128.7M |
CIEN spent $422M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 12% from the year before.
INTC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +4% | +203M shares |
| 1 year | +17% | +776M shares |
| 3 years | +25% | +1.1B shares |
| 5 years | +30% | +1.2B shares |
| Available history | +19% | +834M shares |
INTC has 5.3B diluted shares, up 17% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | $114M |
| Q1 2021 | $2.3B |
CIEN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
CIEN has the edge over INTC on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
INTC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 69.6x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 23.8x | High |
| Q2 2024 | 4.3x | High |
INTC's net debt is about 2.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.0 years a year ago.
CIEN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 14.1 | Oversold |
CIEN's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 14 (oversold).
INTC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.7 | Oversold |
INTC's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
CIEN PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | CIEN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 66x | 28x | 136% above |
| PE % | 70 | 35 | 35 pts above |
CIEN is trading at 66x earnings, a 136% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
INTC PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | INTC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
INTC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CIEN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $338.6 | 13% below |
| 20 week MA | $368.5 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $375.1 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $238.4 | 23% above |
| 200 week MA | $144.4 | 104% above |
CIEN has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 104% above its 200-week average.
INTC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $88.4 | 31% below |
| 20 week MA | $95.3 | 36% below |
| 50 week MA | $79.3 | 23% below |
| 100 week MA | $52.1 | 18% above |
| 200 week MA | $42.5 | 44% above |
INTC has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 44% above its 200-week average.
CIEN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $42.7 | $53.3 | +25% |
| 2021 | $53.3 | $76.0 | +43% |
| 2022 | $76.0 | $49.3 | -35% |
| 2023 | $49.3 | $45.0 | -8.8% |
| 2024 | $45.0 | $86.7 | +93% |
| 2025 | $86.7 | $241.7 | +179% |
| 2026 YTD | $241.7 | $294.0 | +22% |
CIEN has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 22% so far in 2026.
INTC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $60.1 | $47.1 | -22% |
| 2021 | $47.1 | $51.3 | +9% |
| 2022 | $51.3 | $26.1 | -49% |
| 2023 | $26.1 | $50.3 | +93% |
| 2024 | $50.3 | $20.3 | -60% |
| 2025 | $20.3 | $36.2 | +78% |
| 2026 YTD | $36.2 | $61.2 | +69% |
INTC has the edge over CIEN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.