CHDN
Churchill Downs Incorporated
CHDN has the edge over TSLA overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
TSLA's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
CHDN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
CHDN's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
TSLA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
TSLA's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
CHDN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 14x | $99.62 | — |
| Current | 15x | $99.62 | — |
| Cheap | 17x | $107 | +7.6% |
| Fair | 22x | $143 | +44% |
| Expensive | 33x | $216 | +117% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CHDN has the edge over TSLA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TSLA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 60x | $54.70 | -86% |
| Fair | 174x | $158 | -60% |
| Forward | 196x | $397 | — |
| Expensive | 415x | $378 | -4.9% |
| Current | 437x | $397 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TSLA's PE is in its expensive range at 437x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 196x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CHDN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect CHDN's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
TSLA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TSLA, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CHDN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.24 | +12% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.47 | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.86 | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.43 | -3.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.29 | -6.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.50 | -0.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.82 | +6.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.62 | +24% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.68 | +3.5% |
CHDN has the edge over TSLA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TSLA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.03 | +123% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.91 | -39% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.08 | -38% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.08 | -47% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.50 | -59% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.73 | -51% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.82 | -53% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.04 | -53% |
TSLA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.91 over the past year, against $4.30 in late 2023.
CHDN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $696M | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $980M | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $663M | +3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $665.9M | +6.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $683M | +8.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $934.4M | +4.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $642.6M | +8.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $624.2M | +11% |
CHDN has the edge over TSLA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21% | +6.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 36% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 22% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 19% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | -5.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 35% | -2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 21% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 20% | +1.4 points |
CHDN has the edge over TSLA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TSLA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28B | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.2B | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.4B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.9B | -3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $28.1B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $22.5B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $19.3B | -9.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $25.7B | +2.1% |
TSLA's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $28B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6% | -3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.2% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.8% | -5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.1% | -2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1% | -3.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.2% | -2 points |
TSLA's operating margin was 2.6% last quarter, down 3.2 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
CHDN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $129M | -22% |
| Q2 2026 | $198M | -10% |
| Q1 2026 | $276M | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $78.7M | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | $166.3M | +7.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $220.7M | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $233.9M | -3.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $96.8M | +19% |
CHDN has the edge over TSLA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TSLA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | -62% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.1B | -848% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +117% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $4B | +46% |
| Q2 2025 | $146M | -89% |
| Q1 2025 | $664M | +$3.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | -1.6% |
TSLA still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2025 peak: $3.3B over the past year.
CHDN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | -1.4% | -1M shares |
| 3 years | -9.2% | -7.1M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -8.4M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -11.2M shares |
CHDN has the edge over TSLA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $44M |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $32M |
| Q3 2025 | $54.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $254.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $86.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $27.3M |
CHDN spent $76M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 82% from the year before.
TSLA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +15M shares |
| 3 years | +1.4% | +48M shares |
| 5 years | +5.1% | +172M shares |
| Available history | +33% | +886M shares |
TSLA has 3.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
CHDN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 4.8x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 5.1x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.4x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.1x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.2x | High |
CHDN's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 5.4 years a year ago.
TSLA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
TSLA has the edge over CHDN on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CHDN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 93.4 | Overbought |
CHDN's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 93 (overbought).
TSLA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 72.6 | Neutral |
TSLA's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
CHDN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CHDN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 18x | 15% below |
| PE % | 5 | 47 | 42 pts below |
CHDN has the edge over TSLA on valuation relative to its sector.
TSLA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TSLA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 437x | 18x | 2,324% above |
| PE % | 84 | 47 | 37 pts above |
TSLA is trading at 437x earnings, a 2324% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
CHDN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $86.7 | 15% above |
| 20 week MA | $87.0 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $92.0 | 8.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $99.2 | 0.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $114.2 | 13% below |
CHDN has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 13% below its 200-week average.
TSLA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $376.0 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $364.0 | 9.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $393.6 | 1% above |
| 100 week MA | $372.1 | 6.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $296.9 | 34% above |
TSLA has the edge over CHDN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CHDN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $68.1 | $103.5 | +52% |
| 2021 | $103.5 | $118.2 | +14% |
| 2022 | $118.2 | $105.5 | -11% |
| 2023 | $105.5 | $134.9 | +28% |
| 2024 | $134.9 | $132.6 | -1.7% |
| 2025 | $132.6 | $114.5 | -14% |
| 2026 YTD | $114.5 | $99.6 | -13% |
CHDN has the edge over TSLA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TSLA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.7 | $220.6 | +669% |
| 2021 | $220.6 | $355.7 | +61% |
| 2022 | $355.7 | $123.2 | -65% |
| 2023 | $123.2 | $248.5 | +102% |
| 2024 | $248.5 | $431.7 | +74% |
| 2025 | $431.7 | $475.2 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $475.2 | $397.5 | -16% |
TSLA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +669% in 2020 to −65% in 2022. It's down 16% so far in 2026.