CHDN
Churchill Downs Incorporated
CHDN's fundamentals are strong: it turned 23% of its revenue into free cash flow and its operating margin rose 2 points to 26%. Its PE of 15x looks cheaper than it really is, because one-off gains boosted its recent earnings. Analysts expect earnings growth.
CHDN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
CHDN's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
CHDN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 14x | $99.62 | — |
| Current | 15x | $99.62 | — |
| Cheap | 17x | $107 | +7.6% |
| Fair | 22x | $143 | +44% |
| Expensive | 33x | $216 | +117% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CHDN's PE is in its cheap range at 15x, but its recent earnings include one-off gains. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
CHDN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect CHDN's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
CHDN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.24 | +12% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.47 | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.86 | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.43 | -3.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.29 | -6.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.50 | -0.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.82 | +6.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.62 | +24% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.68 | +3.5% |
CHDN earned $6.47 per share over the past year, up 18% from the year before. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
CHDN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $696M | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $980M | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $663M | +3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $665.9M | +6.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $683M | +8.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $934.4M | +4.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $642.6M | +8.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $624.2M | +11% |
CHDN's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $696M last quarter, up 1.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21% | +6.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 36% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 22% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 19% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | -5.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 35% | -2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 21% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 20% | +1.4 points |
CHDN's operating margin was 21% last quarter, up 6.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CHDN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $129M | -22% |
| Q2 2026 | $198M | -10% |
| Q1 2026 | $276M | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $78.7M | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | $166.3M | +7.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $220.7M | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $233.9M | -3.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $96.8M | +19% |
CHDN generated $682M in free cash flow over the past year, down 5% from the year before.
CHDN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | -1.4% | -1M shares |
| 3 years | -9.2% | -7.1M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -8.4M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -11.2M shares |
CHDN has 70M diluted shares, down 1.4% from a year ago, with $76M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $44M |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $32M |
| Q3 2025 | $54.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $254.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $86.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $27.3M |
CHDN spent $76M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 82% from the year before.
CHDN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 4.8x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 5.1x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.4x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.1x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.2x | High |
CHDN's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 5.4 years a year ago.
CHDN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 93.4 | Overbought |
CHDN's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 93 (overbought).
CHDN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CHDN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 18x | 15% below |
| PE % | 5 | 47 | 42 pts below |
CHDN is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its recent earnings include one-off gains.
CHDN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $86.7 | 15% above |
| 20 week MA | $87.0 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $92.0 | 8.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $99.2 | 0.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $114.2 | 13% below |
CHDN has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 13% below its 200-week average.
CHDN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $68.1 | $103.5 | +52% |
| 2021 | $103.5 | $118.2 | +14% |
| 2022 | $118.2 | $105.5 | -11% |
| 2023 | $105.5 | $134.9 | +28% |
| 2024 | $134.9 | $132.6 | -1.7% |
| 2025 | $132.6 | $114.5 | -14% |
| 2026 YTD | $114.5 | $99.6 | -13% |
CHDN has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 13% so far in 2026.