CHDN
Churchill Downs Incorporated
CHDN has the edge over NIO overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
NIO
NIO Inc.
NIO offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CHDN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
CHDN's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
NIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable |
NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CHDN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 14x | $99.62 | — |
| Current | 15x | $99.62 | — |
| Cheap | 17x | $107 | +7.6% |
| Fair | 22x | $143 | +44% |
| Expensive | 33x | $216 | +117% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CHDN's PE is in its cheap range at 15x, but its recent earnings include one-off gains. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
NIO PE Valuation
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CHDN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect CHDN's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
NIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
NIO has the edge over CHDN on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
CHDN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.24 | +12% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.47 | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.86 | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.43 | -3.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.29 | -6.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.50 | -0.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.82 | +6.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.62 | +24% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.68 | +3.5% |
CHDN has the edge over NIO on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.29 | +$1.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.60 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.59 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.74 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.76 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.66 | +$0.21 |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.61 | +$0.32 |
NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.
CHDN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $696M | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $980M | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $663M | +3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $665.9M | +6.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $683M | +8.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $934.4M | +4.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $642.6M | +8.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $624.2M | +11% |
CHDN's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $696M last quarter, up 1.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21% | +6.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 36% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 22% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 19% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | -5.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 35% | -2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 21% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 20% | +1.4 points |
CHDN has the edge over NIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +112% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B | -2.1% |
NIO's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $4.8B last quarter, up 69% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | +24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +52 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -26% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | -28% | -2.6 points |
NIO's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CHDN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $129M | -22% |
| Q2 2026 | $198M | -10% |
| Q1 2026 | $276M | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $78.7M | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | $166.3M | +7.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $220.7M | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $233.9M | -3.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $96.8M | +19% |
CHDN generated $682M in free cash flow over the past year, down 5% from the year before.
NIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | +$391.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.1B | +$73.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | -$391.3M | -386% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.2B | +$337.9M |
NIO's free cash flow was $0 over the past year, against −$2.5B the year before.
CHDN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | -1.4% | -1M shares |
| 3 years | -9.2% | -7.1M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -8.4M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -11.2M shares |
CHDN has the edge over NIO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $44M |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $32M |
| Q3 2025 | $54.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $254.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $86.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $27.3M |
CHDN spent $76M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 82% from the year before.
NIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +15.6M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +267M shares |
| 3 years | +51% | +844M shares |
| 5 years | +60% | +933M shares |
| Available history | +143% | +1.5B shares |
NIO has 2.5B diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NIO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
CHDN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 4.8x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 5.1x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.4x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.1x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.2x | High |
CHDN's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 5.4 years a year ago.
NIO Net Leverage
NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CHDN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 93.4 | Overbought |
CHDN's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 93 (overbought).
NIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.9 | Oversold |
NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CHDN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CHDN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 18x | 15% below |
| PE % | 5 | 47 | 42 pts below |
CHDN is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its recent earnings include one-off gains.
NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CHDN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $86.7 | 15% above |
| 20 week MA | $87.0 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $92.0 | 8.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $99.2 | 0.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $114.2 | 13% below |
CHDN has the edge over NIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.36 | 9.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.01 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.81 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.85 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.03 | 49% below |
NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.
CHDN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $68.1 | $103.5 | +52% |
| 2021 | $103.5 | $118.2 | +14% |
| 2022 | $118.2 | $105.5 | -11% |
| 2023 | $105.5 | $134.9 | +28% |
| 2024 | $134.9 | $132.6 | -1.7% |
| 2025 | $132.6 | $114.5 | -14% |
| 2026 YTD | $114.5 | $99.6 | -13% |
CHDN has the edge over NIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.42 | $45.8 | +1791% |
| 2021 | $45.8 | $30.5 | -33% |
| 2022 | $30.5 | $11.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $9.07 | -17% |
| 2024 | $9.07 | $4.48 | -51% |
| 2025 | $4.48 | $5.10 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.10 | $3.05 | -40% |
NIO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1791% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.