CGBD
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.
CGBD trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over CGBD overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
CGBD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
CGBD's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is weak. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like CGBD.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
CGBD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.5x | $2.84 | -75% |
| Forward | 7.6x | $11.18 | — |
| Fair | 10x | $5.27 | -53% |
| Expensive | 12x | $6.15 | -45% |
| Current | 22x | $11.18 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CGBD's PE is in its expensive range at 22x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 7.6x, in its cheap range.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over CGBD in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CGBD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect CGBD's profitability to improve, with its earnings and revenue holding steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over CGBD on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
CGBD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.47 | +183% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.52 | -55% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.50 | -58% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.70 | -47% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.01 | -36% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16 | -33% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.18 | -38% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.31 | -21% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.58 | -3.7% |
CGBD's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.52 over the past year, against $2.78 in late 2021.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over CGBD on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CGBD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | $15.8M | -70% |
| Q1 2022 | $40.4M | -10% |
| Q4 2021 | $43.7M | -9.4% |
| Q3 2021 | $57.5M | +32% |
| Q2 2021 | $52.5M | -23% |
| Q4 2020 | $48.2M | +15% |
MS has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is down 70% for CGBD versus up 12% for MS.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 31% | -51 points |
| Q1 2022 | 77% | -3.2 points |
| Q4 2021 | 79% | -0.6 points |
| Q3 2021 | 83% | +5.2 points |
| Q2 2021 | 82% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2021 | 80% | N/A |
| Q4 2020 | 79% | +15 points |
| Q3 2020 | 78% | N/A |
CGBD's operating margin was 31% last quarter, down 51 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CGBD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $36.2M | +7.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $73.6M | +$304.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $212.4M | +46% |
| Q4 2025 | -$153.3M | -$42.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $33.8M | -46% |
| Q2 2025 | -$230.9M | -423% |
| Q1 2025 | $145.8M | +80% |
| Q4 2024 | -$111.1M | -299% |
CGBD has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CGBD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1% | -727K shares |
| 1 year | -5.6% | -4.1M shares |
| 3 years | +23% | +12.8M shares |
| 5 years | +16% | +9.6M shares |
| Available history | +17% | +10M shares |
CGBD has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.1M |
| Q2 2026 | $12.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $18.5M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
CGBD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 8.9x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 6.0x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 6.3x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 6.1x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 6.1x | High |
| Q1 2021 | 5.5x | High |
| Q4 2020 | 97.7x | High |
| Q4 2019 | 17.9x | High |
CGBD's net debt is about 8.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 6.1 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like CGBD.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CGBD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 50.2 | Neutral |
CGBD's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 50 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
CGBD PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | CGBD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 13x | 65% above |
| PE % | 90 | 63 | 27 pts above |
CGBD is trading at 22x earnings, a 65% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over CGBD on valuation relative to its sector.
CGBD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $10.8 | 3.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $10.9 | 2.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $11.4 | 1.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $13.1 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $14.4 | 22% below |
CGBD has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 22% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over CGBD on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CGBD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.2 | $11.1 | -22% |
| 2021 | $11.1 | $14.0 | +27% |
| 2022 | $14.0 | $14.8 | +5.2% |
| 2023 | $14.8 | $15.0 | +1.4% |
| 2024 | $15.0 | $18.3 | +22% |
| 2025 | $18.3 | $12.6 | -31% |
| 2026 YTD | $12.6 | $11.2 | -11% |
CGBD has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 11% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over CGBD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.