CGBD
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.
CGBD's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks expensive: trading at 22x earnings, about twice its usual 10x. Analysts expect earnings to hold roughly steady.
CGBD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
CGBD's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is weak. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like CGBD.
CGBD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.5x | $2.84 | -75% |
| Forward | 7.7x | $11.18 | — |
| Fair | 10x | $5.27 | -53% |
| Expensive | 12x | $6.15 | -45% |
| Current | 22x | $11.18 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CGBD's PE is in its expensive range at 22x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 7.7x, in its cheap range.
CGBD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect CGBD's profitability to improve, with its earnings and revenue holding steady.
CGBD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.45 | +179% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.52 | -55% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.50 | -58% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.70 | -47% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.01 | -36% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16 | -33% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.18 | -38% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.31 | -21% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.58 | -3.7% |
CGBD's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.52 over the past year, against $2.78 in late 2021.
CGBD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | $15.8M | -70% |
| Q1 2022 | $40.4M | -10% |
| Q4 2021 | $43.7M | -9.4% |
| Q3 2021 | $57.5M | +32% |
| Q2 2021 | $52.5M | -23% |
| Q4 2020 | $48.2M | +15% |
CGBD's revenue has slid since its 2020 peak: $16M last quarter, down 70% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 31% | -51 points |
| Q1 2022 | 77% | -3.2 points |
| Q4 2021 | 79% | -0.6 points |
| Q3 2021 | 83% | +5.2 points |
| Q2 2021 | 82% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2021 | 80% | N/A |
| Q4 2020 | 79% | +15 points |
| Q3 2020 | 78% | N/A |
CGBD's operating margin was 31% last quarter, down 51 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
CGBD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $36.2M | +7.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $73.6M | +$304.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $212.4M | +46% |
| Q4 2025 | -$153.3M | -$42.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $33.8M | -46% |
| Q2 2025 | -$230.9M | -423% |
| Q1 2025 | $145.8M | +80% |
| Q4 2024 | -$111.1M | -299% |
CGBD's free cash flow was $169M over the past year, against −$162M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like CGBD.
CGBD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1% | -727K shares |
| 1 year | -5.6% | -4.1M shares |
| 3 years | +23% | +12.8M shares |
| 5 years | +16% | +9.6M shares |
| Available history | +17% | +10M shares |
CGBD has 69M diluted shares, down 5.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.1M |
| Q2 2026 | $12.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $18.5M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
CGBD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 8.9x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 6.0x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 6.3x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 6.1x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 6.1x | High |
| Q1 2021 | 5.5x | High |
| Q4 2020 | 97.7x | High |
| Q4 2019 | 17.9x | High |
CGBD's net debt is about 8.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 6.1 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like CGBD.
CGBD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 50.2 | Neutral |
CGBD's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 50 (neutral).
CGBD PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | CGBD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 13x | 65% above |
| PE % | 90 | 63 | 27 pts above |
CGBD is trading at 22x earnings, a 65% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
CGBD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $10.8 | 3.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $10.9 | 2.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $11.4 | 1.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $13.1 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $14.4 | 22% below |
CGBD has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 22% below its 200-week average.
CGBD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.2 | $11.1 | -22% |
| 2021 | $11.1 | $14.0 | +27% |
| 2022 | $14.0 | $14.8 | +5.2% |
| 2023 | $14.8 | $15.0 | +1.4% |
| 2024 | $15.0 | $18.3 | +22% |
| 2025 | $18.3 | $12.6 | -31% |
| 2026 YTD | $12.6 | $11.2 | -11% |
CGBD has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 11% so far in 2026.