CERT
Certara, Inc.
CERT offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO has a slight edge over CERT overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
CERT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
CERT's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its revenue and profitability are under pressure.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
CERT PE Valuation
CERT has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO's PE is 10x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
CERT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect CERT's profitability to weaken, with its earnings and revenue holding steady.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
NVO has the edge over CERT on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
CERT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.40 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | -700% |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.45 | -1000% |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.10 | -$0.08 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.01 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.07 | +$0.27 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.05 | +$0.55 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.02 | +$0.37 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.08 | +$0.27 |
CERT has swung to a loss: it lost $0.42 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO has the edge over CERT on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
CERT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $94.9M | -9.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $93.3M | -11% |
| Q1 2026 | $106.9M | +0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $103.6M | +3.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $104.6M | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $104.6M | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $106M | +9.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.4M | +14% |
CERT's revenue is shrinking: $95M last quarter, down 9.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5% | -0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | -0.2% | -9.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | -4% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.8% | -5.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.9% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.1% | +19 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.2% | +8.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6% | +16 points |
CERT's operating margin was 2.5% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO has the edge over CERT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over CERT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CERT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $29.9M | -6.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.4M | -47% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.1M | -34% |
| Q4 2025 | $27.8M | -43% |
| Q3 2025 | $32.1M | +91% |
| Q2 2025 | $17.9M | +91% |
| Q1 2025 | $16.8M | +356% |
| Q4 2024 | $49M | +118% |
CERT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $78M over the past year, down 32% from the year before.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO has the edge over CERT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CERT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.1% | -1.7M shares |
| 1 year | -4.9% | -7.9M shares |
| 3 years | -4.1% | -6.5M shares |
| 5 years | +2.5% | +3.7M shares |
| Available history | +3.8% | +5.5M shares |
CERT has the edge over NVO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $17.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $40M |
| Q4 2025 | $3.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $13.7M |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | $1M |
| Q2 2020 | — |
CERT spent $61M buying back its own shares over the past year.
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has 4.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
CERT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 12.0x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 442.0x | High |
CERT's net debt is about 1.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.2 years a year ago.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO has the edge over CERT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CERT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 74.4 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 88.2 | Overbought |
CERT's weekly RSI is 74 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 88 (overbought).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
CERT PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | CERT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 26x | — |
CERT has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO is trading at 10x earnings, a 60% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x, though its earnings don't support one.
CERT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $10.3 | 16% above |
| 20 week MA | $8.77 | 36% above |
| 50 week MA | $7.68 | 55% above |
| 100 week MA | $9.56 | 24% above |
| 200 week MA | $13.0 | 8.2% below |
CERT has the edge over NVO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
CERT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $38.1 | $37.8 | -0.7% |
| 2021 | $37.8 | $29.4 | -22% |
| 2022 | $29.4 | $16.0 | -45% |
| 2023 | $16.0 | $17.6 | +9.8% |
| 2024 | $17.6 | $10.7 | -39% |
| 2025 | $10.7 | $8.89 | -17% |
| 2026 YTD | $8.89 | $11.9 | +34% |
CERT has the edge over NVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.