CERT
Certara, Inc.
CERT trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over CERT overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
CERT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
CERT's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its revenue and profitability are under pressure.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CERT PE Valuation
CERT has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
CERT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect CERT's profitability to weaken, with its earnings and revenue holding steady.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over CERT on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
CERT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.40 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | -700% |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.45 | -1000% |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.10 | -$0.08 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.01 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.07 | +$0.27 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.05 | +$0.55 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.02 | +$0.37 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.08 | +$0.27 |
CERT has swung to a loss: it lost $0.42 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.83 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over CERT on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
CERT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $94.9M | -9.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $93.3M | -11% |
| Q1 2026 | $106.9M | +0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $103.6M | +3.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $104.6M | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $104.6M | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $106M | +9.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.4M | +14% |
CERT's revenue is shrinking: $95M last quarter, down 9.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5% | -0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | -0.2% | -9.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | -4% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.8% | -5.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.9% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.1% | +19 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.2% | +8.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6% | +16 points |
CERT's operating margin was 2.5% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over CERT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over CERT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CERT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $29.9M | -6.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.4M | -47% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.1M | -34% |
| Q4 2025 | $27.8M | -43% |
| Q3 2025 | $32.1M | +91% |
| Q2 2025 | $17.9M | +91% |
| Q1 2025 | $16.8M | +356% |
| Q4 2024 | $49M | +118% |
CERT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $78M over the past year, down 32% from the year before.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over CERT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CERT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.1% | -1.7M shares |
| 1 year | -4.9% | -7.9M shares |
| 3 years | -4.1% | -6.5M shares |
| 5 years | +2.5% | +3.7M shares |
| Available history | +3.8% | +5.5M shares |
CERT has the edge over LLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $17.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $40M |
| Q4 2025 | $3.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $13.7M |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | $1M |
| Q2 2020 | — |
CERT spent $61M buying back its own shares over the past year.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has 893M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
CERT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 12.0x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 442.0x | High |
CERT's net debt is about 1.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.2 years a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY has the edge over CERT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CERT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 74.4 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 88.2 | Overbought |
CERT's weekly RSI is 74 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 88 (overbought).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
CERT PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | CERT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 26x | — |
CERT has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
CERT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $10.3 | 16% above |
| 20 week MA | $8.77 | 36% above |
| 50 week MA | $7.68 | 55% above |
| 100 week MA | $9.56 | 24% above |
| 200 week MA | $13.0 | 8.2% below |
CERT has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 8.2% below its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over CERT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CERT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $38.1 | $37.8 | -0.7% |
| 2021 | $37.8 | $29.4 | -22% |
| 2022 | $29.4 | $16.0 | -45% |
| 2023 | $16.0 | $17.6 | +9.8% |
| 2024 | $17.6 | $10.7 | -39% |
| 2025 | $10.7 | $8.89 | -17% |
| 2026 YTD | $8.89 | $11.9 | +34% |
CERT has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.