CBSH
Commerce Bancshares, Inc.
CBSH has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over CBSH overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
CBSH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
CBSH's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like CBSH.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
CBSH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $53.32 | -4% |
| Forward | 13x | $55.57 | — |
| Current | 14x | $55.57 | — |
| Fair | 16x | $62.21 | +12% |
| Expensive | 19x | $75.69 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CBSH has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
CBSH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CBSH, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
CBSH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.43 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.00 | -1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.98 | -0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.02 | +3.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.04 | +8.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.05 | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.01 | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.89 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.73 | +12% |
CBSH earned $4.00 per share over the past year, down 1.2% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over CBSH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CBSH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $494.3M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $498.9M | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $475.7M | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $449.4M | +6.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $441M | +4.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $445.8M | +7.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $428.1M | +7.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $422.1M | +7.3% |
CBSH's revenue has grown year over year for 18 quarters in a row: $494M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 41% | -0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 41% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 39% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 41% | -0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 42% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 39% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 41% | +4.6 points |
CBSH has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over CBSH on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CBSH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $181M | +60% |
| Q2 2026 | $169.1M | +68% |
| Q1 2026 | $678.4M | +438% |
| Q4 2025 | $252.6M | +$403.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $113.3M | -73% |
| Q2 2025 | $100.5M | -28% |
| Q1 2025 | $126M | +1.2% |
| Q4 2024 | -$150.7M | -243% |
CBSH has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CBSH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.3% | -1.9M shares |
| 1 year | +6.9% | +9.1M shares |
| 3 years | +3.3% | +4.5M shares |
| 5 years | +0.2% | +350K shares |
| Available history | -1% | -1.5M shares |
CBSH has 142M diluted shares, up 6.9% from a year ago, despite $422M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $110.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $112.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $84.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $115.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $25.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $11.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $55.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $46.9M |
CBSH spent $422M buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over CBSH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
CBSH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
CBSH has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CBSH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 24.3 | Neutral |
CBSH's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 24 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
CBSH PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | CBSH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 6.7% above |
| PE % | 22 | 63 | 41 pts below |
CBSH has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
CBSH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $55.4 | 0.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $57.4 | 3.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $54.3 | 2.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $56.2 | 1.1% below |
| 200 week MA | $52.9 | 5.1% above |
CBSH's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 5.1% above its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
CBSH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $50.9 | $52.0 | +2.2% |
| 2021 | $52.0 | $56.0 | +7.7% |
| 2022 | $56.0 | $57.7 | +3% |
| 2023 | $57.7 | $48.4 | -16% |
| 2024 | $48.4 | $59.8 | +24% |
| 2025 | $59.8 | $53.0 | -11% |
| 2026 YTD | $53.0 | $55.6 | +4.9% |
CBSH has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.