CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
XPO
XPO Logistics, Inc.
XPO has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
XPO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
XPO's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over XPO in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
XPO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 18x | $76.68 | -59% |
| Forward | 28x | $189 | — |
| Fair | 43x | $182 | -3.7% |
| Current | 45x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 97x | $412 | +119% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
XPO's PE is in its fair range at 45x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 28x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
XPO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for XPO, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
XPO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.65 | +57% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.23 | +52% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.38 | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.91 | -10% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.64 | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.78 | -10% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.89 | -4% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.25 | +59% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.23 | +101% |
XPO has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over XPO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
XPO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.1B | +7.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2B | +4.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.1B | +2.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.1B | 0% |
| Q1 2025 | $2B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.9B | -0.9% |
XPO's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $2.4B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | +4.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.3% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.8% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.5% | 0 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.7% | +0.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.8% | +1.6 points |
XPO's operating margin was 12% last quarter, up 4.4 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
XPO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $284M | +32% |
| Q2 2026 | $181M | +255% |
| Q1 2026 | $72M | +$129M |
| Q4 2025 | $120M | +422% |
| Q3 2025 | $215M | +57% |
| Q2 2025 | $51M | +155% |
| Q1 2025 | -$57M | +$104M |
| Q4 2024 | $23M | +$811M |
XPO has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over XPO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
XPO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | -1.7% | -2M shares |
| 3 years | -0.8% | -1M shares |
| 5 years | +1.7% | +2M shares |
| Available history | +11% | +12M shares |
XPO has 118M diluted shares, down 1.7% from a year ago, with $318M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $150M |
| Q2 2026 | $70M |
| Q1 2026 | $30M |
| Q4 2025 | $68M |
| Q3 2025 | $47M |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
XPO spent $318M buying back its own shares over the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over XPO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
XPO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.7x | Moderate |
XPO's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.5 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
XPO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 34.7 | Neutral |
XPO's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 35 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over XPO on valuation relative to its sector.
XPO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | XPO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 45x | 24x | 85% above |
| PE % | 52 | 58 | 6 pts below |
XPO is trading at 45x earnings, a 85% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
XPO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $183.5 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $193.0 | 2.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $189.5 | 0.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $157.3 | 20% above |
| 200 week MA | $122.6 | 54% above |
XPO has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
XPO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $27.8 | $41.2 | +48% |
| 2021 | $41.2 | $44.8 | +8.6% |
| 2022 | $44.8 | $34.9 | -22% |
| 2023 | $34.9 | $87.6 | +151% |
| 2024 | $87.6 | $132.3 | +51% |
| 2025 | $132.3 | $141.3 | +6.9% |
| 2026 YTD | $141.3 | $188.6 | +33% |
XPO has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.