CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over WSO overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
WSO
Watsco, Inc.
WSO offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
WSO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
WSO's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
WSO PE Valuation
WSO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over WSO on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
WSO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect WSO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over WSO on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
WSO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $12.53 | +9.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $11.46 | -11% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.67 | -11% |
| Q1 2026 | $12.19 | -6.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.25 | -7.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.85 | -0.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.09 | +0.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.06 | +0.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.30 | -2.7% |
WSO's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $11.46 over the past year, against $15.41 in late 2022.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over WSO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over WSO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
WSO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +7.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.1B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | -10% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.1B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.1B | -3.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | -2.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.8B | +9.4% |
WSO's revenue grew through 2022 and has held roughly level since: $2.2B last quarter, up 7.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 10% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 11% | -1.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.2% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.4% | -1.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.3% | -0.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.8% | +1 points |
WSO's operating margin was 10% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
WSO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $315.4M | -8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | -$11.5M | +$2.8M |
| Q1 2026 | -$25.9M | +$159.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $388.5M | +4.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $346.1M | +55% |
| Q2 2025 | -$14.3M | -128% |
| Q1 2025 | -$185.2M | -289% |
| Q4 2024 | $370.9M | +28% |
WSO has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over WSO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
WSO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1% | +365K shares |
| 1 year | +1.7% | +640K shares |
| 3 years | -2.1% | -836K shares |
| 5 years | -0.6% | -215K shares |
| Available history | +11% | +3.9M shares |
WSO has 39M diluted shares, up 1.7% from a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
WSO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
WSO has more cash than debt.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
WSO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 42.6 | Neutral |
WSO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 43 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over WSO on valuation relative to its sector.
WSO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | WSO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 24x | 12% above |
| PE % | 32 | 58 | 26 pts below |
WSO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over WSO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
WSO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $303.7 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $323.4 | 4.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $361.9 | 15% below |
| 100 week MA | $402.8 | 23% below |
| 200 week MA | $404.4 | 24% below |
WSO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 24% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over WSO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
WSO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $180.7 | $234.2 | +30% |
| 2021 | $234.2 | $302.9 | +29% |
| 2022 | $302.9 | $252.2 | -17% |
| 2023 | $252.2 | $428.5 | +70% |
| 2024 | $428.5 | $480.0 | +12% |
| 2025 | $480.0 | $348.1 | -27% |
| 2026 YTD | $348.1 | $308.2 | -11% |
WSO has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 11% so far in 2026.