CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over WLFC overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
WLFC
Willis Lease Finance Corporation
WLFC offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
WLFC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Weak |
WLFC's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over WLFC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
WLFC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 4.8x | $16.10 | -65% |
| Fair | 9.2x | $31.00 | -33% |
| Expensive | 14x | $48.27 | +4.1% |
| Current | 14x | $46.35 | — |
| Forward | 14x | $46.35 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
WLFC's PE is 14x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over WLFC on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
WLFC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong decline | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect WLFC's revenue to grow, but its earnings and profitability to decline.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
WLFC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.25 | -3.7% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.37 | -39% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.98 | -29% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.48 | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.13 | +0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.55 | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.59 | +30% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.85 | +68% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.11 | +146% |
WLFC has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over WLFC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
WLFC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $246.3M | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $194M | -0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $194.3M | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $193.6M | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $183.4M | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $195.5M | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $157.7M | +32% |
| Q4 2024 | $152.8M | +34% |
WLFC has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.7% | -16 points |
| Q2 2026 | 18% | +3.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.3% | -12 points |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | -2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -21 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | -7.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | +4.5 points |
WLFC's operating margin was 4.7% last quarter, down 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
WLFC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $102.7M | +78% |
| Q2 2026 | $74.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2026 | $53.1M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $66.2M | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | $57.8M | -33% |
| Q2 2025 | $94.5M | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $33.5M | -44% |
| Q4 2024 | $55.1M | -8% |
WLFC has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over WLFC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
WLFC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -72K shares |
| 1 year | +4% | +848K shares |
| 3 years | +13% | +2.5M shares |
| 5 years | +15% | +2.9M shares |
| Available history | +20% | +3.6M shares |
WLFC has 22M diluted shares, up 4% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | $65,000 |
| Q2 2022 | $3.4M |
| Q1 2022 | $1.8M |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over WLFC on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
WLFC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11.7x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 9.7x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 9.7x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 12.4x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 9.9x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 12.8x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 9.3x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 9.5x | High |
WLFC's net debt is about 12 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 9.9 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
WLFC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.3 | Neutral |
WLFC's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
WLFC PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | WLFC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 24x | 43% below |
| PE % | 78 | 58 | 20 pts above |
WLFC has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
WLFC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.0 | 5.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $54.9 | 16% below |
| 50 week MA | $58.0 | 20% below |
| 100 week MA | $54.9 | 16% below |
| 200 week MA | $39.5 | 17% above |
WLFC's trend is mixed: it's above two of its five weekly moving averages, and 17% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over WLFC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
WLFC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $19.8 | $11.0 | -45% |
| 2021 | $11.0 | $12.3 | +12% |
| 2022 | $12.3 | $18.8 | +52% |
| 2023 | $18.8 | $16.3 | -13% |
| 2024 | $16.3 | $67.3 | +313% |
| 2025 | $67.3 | $45.6 | -32% |
| 2026 YTD | $45.6 | $46.4 | +1.7% |
WLFC's yearly returns have swung widely, from +313% in 2024 to −45% in 2020. It's up 1.7% so far in 2026.