CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
VSEC
VSE Corporation
VSEC has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
VSEC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
VSEC's revenue and profitability are currently strong, and its cash flow is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over VSEC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
VSEC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 20x | $80.58 | -56% |
| Forward | 23x | $184 | — |
| Current | 45x | $184 | — |
| Fair | 63x | $258 | +40% |
| Expensive | 147x | $601 | +227% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VSEC's PE is in its fair range at 45x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 23x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
VSEC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for VSEC, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
VSEC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.85 | +92% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.08 | +483% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.78 | +144% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.03 | +148% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.55 | -35% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.70 | -13% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.14 | +42% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.82 | -50% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.85 | -69% |
VSEC has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over VSEC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
VSEC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $541M | +91% |
| Q2 2026 | $449.1M | +65% |
| Q1 2026 | $324.6M | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $301.2M | +0.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $282.9M | +3.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $272.1M | +2.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $256M | +6% |
| Q4 2024 | $299M | +27% |
VSEC has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | +11 points |
| Q2 2026 | 11% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 10% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.6% | -5.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.3% | +6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.6% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.2% | -1.6 points |
VSEC's operating margin was 14% last quarter, up 11 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
VSEC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $46.6M | +158% |
| Q2 2026 | $18.7M | +197% |
| Q1 2026 | -$68.7M | -$19.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $30.9M | -41% |
| Q3 2025 | $18M | +309% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.3M | +$27.8M |
| Q1 2025 | -$49.5M | +$37.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $52.1M | +160% |
VSEC has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over VSEC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
VSEC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.3% | +405K shares |
| 1 year | +53% | +11.1M shares |
| 3 years | +146% | +18.9M shares |
| 5 years | +150% | +19.1M shares |
| Available history | +187% | +20.7M shares |
VSEC has 32M diluted shares, up 53% from a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over VSEC on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
VSEC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 4.8x | High |
| Q1 2026 | -6.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 4.0x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 3.6x | Elevated |
VSEC's net debt is about 3.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.8 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
VSEC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 26.8 | Neutral |
VSEC's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over VSEC on valuation relative to its sector.
VSEC PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | VSEC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 45x | 24x | 87% above |
| PE % | 40 | 58 | 18 pts below |
VSEC is trading at 45x earnings, a 87% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
VSEC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $166.5 | 10% above |
| 20 week MA | $191.6 | 4.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $193.5 | 5.1% below |
| 100 week MA | $163.9 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $116.5 | 58% above |
VSEC has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over VSEC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
VSEC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $39.0 | $40.7 | +4.4% |
| 2021 | $40.7 | $61.5 | +51% |
| 2022 | $61.5 | $44.9 | -27% |
| 2023 | $44.9 | $64.6 | +44% |
| 2024 | $64.6 | $96.8 | +50% |
| 2025 | $96.8 | $179.5 | +85% |
| 2026 YTD | $179.5 | $183.6 | +2.3% |
VSEC has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 2.3% so far in 2026.