CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
VMI
Valmont Industries, Inc.
VMI has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
VMI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
VMI's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
VMI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 16x | $423 | — |
| Forward | 17x | $423 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $510 | +21% |
| Fair | 26x | $711 | +68% |
| Expensive | 34x | $911 | +116% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VMI has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over VMI on the outlook, with more favorable valuation expectations.
VMI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for VMI, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
VMI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $25.44 | -5.5% |
| Q3 2026 | $26.91 | +132% |
| Q2 2026 | $25.65 | +139% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.98 | +4.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $16.79 | -2.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.62 | -21% |
| Q2 2025 | $10.75 | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.19 | +125% |
| Q4 2024 | $17.19 | +154% |
VMI has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over VMI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
VMI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +5.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | +6.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1B | +6.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1B | +2.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | +1% |
| Q1 2025 | $969.3M | -0.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $1B | +2.1% |
VMI's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $1.1B last quarter, up 5.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 16% | +2.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 15% | +12 points |
| Q1 2026 | 15% | +1.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | -0.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.8% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | +5.3 points |
VMI's operating margin was 16% last quarter, up 2.1 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
VMI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $54.9M | -22% |
| Q2 2026 | $112.2M | -17% |
| Q1 2026 | $68.9M | +98% |
| Q4 2025 | $70.4M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $70.6M | -66% |
| Q2 2025 | $135.6M | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $34.8M | +318% |
| Q4 2024 | $167.8M | +86% |
VMI has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
VMI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -129K shares |
| 1 year | -2.4% | -485K shares |
| 3 years | -9.9% | -2.1M shares |
| 5 years | -9.5% | -2M shares |
| Available history | -11% | -2.4M shares |
VMI has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $82.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $60M |
| Q1 2026 | $57.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $72.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $25.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $15M |
| Q3 2024 | $40.1M |
| Q4 2023 | $178.6M |
VMI spent $272M buying back its own shares over the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over VMI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
VMI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.9x | Very low |
VMI's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
VMI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 37.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.5 | Oversold |
VMI's weekly RSI is 37 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
VMI PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | VMI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 24x | 35% below |
| PE % | 5 | 58 | 53 pts below |
VMI has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
VMI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $442.8 | 4.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $476.7 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $467.5 | 9.6% below |
| 100 week MA | $405.4 | 4.3% above |
| 200 week MA | $336.6 | 26% above |
VMI has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 26% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over VMI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
VMI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $150.4 | $172.1 | +14% |
| 2021 | $172.1 | $244.8 | +42% |
| 2022 | $244.8 | $335.1 | +37% |
| 2023 | $335.1 | $233.5 | -30% |
| 2024 | $233.5 | $306.5 | +31% |
| 2025 | $306.5 | $412.2 | +34% |
| 2026 YTD | $412.2 | $422.7 | +2.5% |
VMI has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 2.5% so far in 2026.