CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over VATE overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
VATE
INNOVATE Corp.
VATE offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
VATE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
VATE's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
VATE PE Valuation
VATE has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
VATE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect VATE's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over VATE on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
VATE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.05 | +$6.00 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.86 | +$4.66 |
| Q1 2026 | -$4.24 | -$0.39 |
| Q4 2025 | -$4.84 | -$0.68 |
| Q3 2025 | -$6.05 | -$2.37 |
| Q2 2025 | -$6.52 | -$3.12 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.85 | +$1.85 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.16 | +$0.64 |
VATE lost $0.05 per share over the past year, a smaller loss than the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over VATE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
VATE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $495.5M | +43% |
| Q2 2026 | $421.6M | +74% |
| Q1 2026 | $364.8M | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $382.7M | +62% |
| Q3 2025 | $347.1M | +43% |
| Q2 2025 | $242M | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | $274.2M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $236.6M | -34% |
VATE has the edge over CAT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6% | +4.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8.2% | +6.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2.7% | +1.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.7% | +2.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.8% | -0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2% | -7.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1% | -2.8 points |
VATE's operating margin was 6% last quarter, up 4.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
VATE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $34.8M | +83% |
| Q2 2026 | -$24.7M | -155% |
| Q1 2026 | $45.3M | +$64.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $101.1M | +196% |
| Q3 2025 | $19M | +$50.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $44.8M | +143% |
| Q1 2025 | -$18.8M | +$12.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $34.2M | -40% |
VATE has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over VATE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
VATE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.9% | -264K shares |
| 1 year | +3.3% | +440K shares |
| 3 years | +75% | +5.9M shares |
| 5 years | +78% | +6M shares |
| Available history | +206% | +9.2M shares |
VATE has 14M diluted shares, up 3.3% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over VATE on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
VATE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.3x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 6.0x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 9.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 10.4x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 15.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 14.6x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 9.6x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 9.4x | High |
VATE's net debt is about 5.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 15 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
VATE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 37.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 2.3 | Oversold |
VATE's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 2 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
VATE PE vs Industrials Sector
VATE has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over VATE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
VATE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $6.21 | 22% below |
| 20 week MA | $7.91 | 39% below |
| 50 week MA | $8.41 | 42% below |
| 100 week MA | $7.38 | 34% below |
| 200 week MA | $10.2 | 52% below |
VATE is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 52% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over VATE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
VATE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $21.1 | $36.8 | +74% |
| 2021 | $36.8 | $37.3 | +1.4% |
| 2022 | $37.3 | $14.2 | -62% |
| 2023 | $14.2 | $12.3 | -13% |
| 2024 | $12.3 | $5.33 | -57% |
| 2025 | $5.33 | $4.92 | -7.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.92 | $4.86 | -1.2% |
VATE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 1.2% so far in 2026.