CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over UPS overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.
UPS offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
UPS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
UPS's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue, profitability and balance sheet are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
UPS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 14x | $73.78 | -33% |
| Forward | 14x | $110 | — |
| Fair | 18x | $92.54 | -16% |
| Current | 21x | $110 | — |
| Expensive | 29x | $148 | +34% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UPS has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
UPS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for UPS, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over UPS on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
UPS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.96 | +53% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.20 | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.38 | -20% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.18 | -9.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.56 | -2.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.46 | -2.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.71 | +9.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.85 | -0.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.75 | -13% |
UPS's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $5.20 over the past year, against $14.68 in late 2021.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over UPS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over UPS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
UPS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $22.9B | +6.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $22.8B | +7.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $21.2B | -1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.5B | -3.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $21.4B | -3.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $21.2B | -2.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $21.5B | -0.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $25.3B | +1.5% |
UPS's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $22.9B last quarter, up 6.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.6% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.1% | -4.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | -1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.6% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.7% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | +1.6 points |
UPS's operating margin was 7.6% last quarter, down 0.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
UPS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4B | +59% |
| Q2 2026 | $166M | +$941M |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | -17% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.6B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.5B | +131% |
| Q2 2025 | -$775M | -173% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B | -37% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.2B | +512% |
UPS has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over UPS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
UPS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.5% | +4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 5 years | -3.1% | -27M shares |
| Available history | -2% | -17M shares |
UPS has 852M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $1B |
| Q4 2024 | — |
UPS hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over UPS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
UPS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3x | Healthy |
UPS's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.5 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
UPS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.5 | Neutral |
UPS's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
UPS PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | UPS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 24x | 12% below |
| PE % | 73 | 58 | 15 pts above |
UPS has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
UPS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $100.9 | 9.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $104.2 | 5.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $104.6 | 5.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $103.1 | 7% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.4 | 15% below |
UPS has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
UPS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $118.9 | $172.2 | +45% |
| 2021 | $172.2 | $212.2 | +23% |
| 2022 | $212.2 | $177.0 | -17% |
| 2023 | $177.0 | $157.2 | -11% |
| 2024 | $157.2 | $126.1 | -20% |
| 2025 | $126.1 | $100.5 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $100.5 | $110.4 | +9.8% |
UPS has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.