CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over ULCC overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.
ULCC offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ULCC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Weak | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
ULCC's revenue and balance sheet are currently strong, and its cash flow is stable, but its profitability is weak.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ULCC PE Valuation
ULCC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ULCC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ULCC's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over ULCC on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ULCC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.78 | -$1.18 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.67 | -$1.52 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.59 | -630% |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.60 | -262% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.60 | -$0.57 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.15 | +$0.13 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.30 | +$0.41 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.37 | +$0.42 |
ULCC lost $1.78 per share over the past year, and its loss has widened in each of the last three quarters.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over ULCC on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over ULCC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ULCC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +53% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +38% |
| Q1 2026 | $992M | +8.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $997M | -0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $886M | -5.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $929M | -4.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $912M | +5.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $1B | +12% |
ULCC's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $1.4B last quarter, up 53% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -8% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | -7.6% | +0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | -29% | -24 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.9% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | -8.7% | -11 points |
| Q2 2025 | -8.1% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | -5% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.5% | +4.8 points |
ULCC's operating margin was −8% last quarter, up 0.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ULCC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$51M | +$166M |
| Q2 2026 | $138M | +$304M |
| Q1 2026 | $28M | +$132M |
| Q4 2025 | -$113M | -255% |
| Q3 2025 | -$217M | -$47M |
| Q2 2025 | -$166M | -$144M |
| Q1 2025 | -$104M | -$65M |
| Q4 2024 | $73M | +$141M |
ULCC's free cash flow has turned positive after six years mostly in the red: $2M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over ULCC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ULCC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +264K shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +2.1M shares |
| 3 years | +4.3% | +9.4M shares |
| 5 years | +5.5% | +12M shares |
| Available history | +15% | +30.6M shares |
ULCC has 230M diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
| Q4 2019 | — |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
ULCC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2023 | -3.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2023 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2023 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
ULCC has more cash than debt.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ULCC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 61.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 69.0 | Neutral |
ULCC's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 69 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
ULCC PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ULCC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
ULCC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
ULCC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $6.19 | 24% above |
| 20 week MA | $6.30 | 22% above |
| 50 week MA | $5.50 | 40% above |
| 100 week MA | $5.28 | 46% above |
| 200 week MA | $6.00 | 28% above |
ULCC has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
ULCC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $18.9 | $14.3 | -24% |
| 2022 | $14.3 | $10.5 | -27% |
| 2023 | $10.5 | $5.46 | -48% |
| 2024 | $5.46 | $7.17 | +31% |
| 2025 | $7.17 | $4.71 | -34% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.71 | $7.70 | +63% |
ULCC has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.