CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over TKR overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
TKR
The Timken Company
TKR's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
TKR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
TKR's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over TKR in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TKR PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $50.52 | -54% |
| Fair | 15x | $62.02 | -44% |
| Forward | 16x | $110 | — |
| Expensive | 20x | $82.47 | -25% |
| Current | 27x | $110 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TKR's PE is in its expensive range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TKR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TKR, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over TKR on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TKR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.09 | +75% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.04 | -4.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.69 | -16% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.40 | -5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.11 | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.23 | -12% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.40 | -9.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.64 | -12% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.99 | -8.6% |
TKR's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.04 over the past year, against $5.95 in late 2023.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over TKR on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over TKR on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TKR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +7.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | +8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +3.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2B | -0.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | -4.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | -1.6% |
TKR's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $1.2B last quarter, up 4.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | +1.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.7% | -5.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 14% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9.8% | -0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | -0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | -2.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -0.4 points |
TKR's operating margin was 14% last quarter, up 1.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
TKR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $221.4M | +35% |
| Q2 2026 | $80.5M | +2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $500K | -98% |
| Q4 2025 | $140.7M | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $163.8M | +86% |
| Q2 2025 | $78.2M | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.4M | +350% |
| Q4 2024 | $125M | +66% |
TKR has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over TKR on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
TKR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -261K shares |
| 1 year | -0.4% | -277K shares |
| 3 years | -2.4% | -1.7M shares |
| 5 years | -9.3% | -7.2M shares |
| Available history | -9.2% | -7.1M shares |
TKR has 70M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $63.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $20M |
| Q1 2026 | $28M |
| Q4 2025 | $11.7M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $22.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $23.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $9.1M |
TKR spent $124M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 125% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over TKR on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TKR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.0x | Moderate |
TKR's net debt is about 2.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.2 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
TKR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 17.4 | Oversold |
TKR's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 17 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over TKR on valuation relative to its sector.
TKR PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | TKR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 24x | 14% above |
| PE % | 94 | 58 | 36 pts above |
TKR is trading at 27x earnings, a 14% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
TKR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $112.6 | 2% below |
| 20 week MA | $123.2 | 10% below |
| 50 week MA | $112.9 | 2.2% below |
| 100 week MA | $93.7 | 18% above |
| 200 week MA | $87.3 | 27% above |
TKR has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 27% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
TKR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $56.6 | $77.4 | +37% |
| 2021 | $77.4 | $67.4 | -13% |
| 2022 | $67.4 | $70.7 | +4.9% |
| 2023 | $70.7 | $80.2 | +13% |
| 2024 | $80.2 | $71.5 | -11% |
| 2025 | $71.5 | $86.5 | +21% |
| 2026 YTD | $86.5 | $110.4 | +28% |
TKR has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.