CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
TDG
TransDigm Group Incorporated
TDG has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
TDG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
TDG's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is weak.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
TDG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 34x | $1,203 | — |
| Cheap | 39x | $1,391 | +16% |
| Fair | 48x | $1,689 | +40% |
| Expensive | 57x | $2,012 | +67% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TDG has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TDG Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for TDG to show an outlook.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
TDG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $35.51 | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $32.96 | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $32.04 | +8.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $31.08 | +9.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $32.08 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $30.15 | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $29.64 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $28.37 | +20% |
TDG has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
TDG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3B | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.7B | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.5B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.3B | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.4B | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2B | +9.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.2B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | +12% |
TDG's revenue has grown year over year for 22 quarters in a row: $3B last quarter, up 23% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 46% | -2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | -1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 46% | -2.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 48% | +4.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 46% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +0.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 49% | +4.6 points |
TDG has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over TDG on cash flow, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
TDG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $427M | -3.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $650M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $64M | -30% |
| Q4 2025 | $772M | +8.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $441M | -17% |
| Q2 2025 | $573M | +0.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $92M | -49% |
| Q4 2024 | $710M | +18% |
TDG's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $1.9B over the past year, up 5.3% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over TDG on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
TDG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +200K shares |
| 1 year | -1% | -600K shares |
| 3 years | +0.7% | +400K shares |
| 5 years | -1.4% | -800K shares |
| Available history | +0.3% | +200K shares |
TDG has 58M diluted shares, down 1% from a year ago, with $2.8B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $943M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $615M |
| Q4 2025 | $106M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $131M |
| Q1 2025 | $53M |
| Q4 2024 | $316M |
TDG spent $2.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, about six times what it spent the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over TDG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TDG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.0x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 6.0x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 5.7x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.8x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.9x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.0x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.3x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.4x | High |
TDG's net debt is about 6.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 5.8 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
TDG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 45.9 | Neutral |
TDG's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 46 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over TDG on valuation relative to its sector.
TDG PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | TDG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 34x | 24x | 41% above |
| PE % | 7 | 58 | 51 pts below |
TDG is trading at 34x earnings, a 41% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
TDG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,138.2 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,185.4 | 1.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,239.0 | 2.9% below |
| 100 week MA | $1,304.6 | 7.8% below |
| 200 week MA | $1,175.0 | 2.4% above |
TDG has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over TDG on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TDG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $564.0 | $606.7 | +7.6% |
| 2021 | $606.7 | $628.0 | +3.5% |
| 2022 | $628.0 | $620.3 | -1.2% |
| 2023 | $620.3 | $1,011.6 | +63% |
| 2024 | $1,011.6 | $1,290.9 | +28% |
| 2025 | $1,290.9 | $1,309.2 | +1.4% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,309.2 | $1,203.0 | -8.1% |
TDG has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 8.1% so far in 2026.