CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
SWK
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
SWK has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
SWK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
SWK's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
SWK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 14x | $78.98 | -30% |
| Current | 20x | $113 | — |
| Fair | 22x | $121 | +7.1% |
| Expensive | 30x | $169 | +50% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SWK has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SWK Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for SWK to show an outlook.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
SWK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.59 | +93% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.10 | +30% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.44 | +0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.65 | +36% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.90 | +$4.26 |
| Q2 2025 | $3.16 | +$5.09 |
| Q1 2025 | $2.42 | +$3.10 |
| Q4 2024 | $1.95 | +$4.02 |
SWK has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over SWK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over SWK on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SWK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | -0.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $4B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.7B | -1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.8B | +0.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.9B | -2% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.7B | -0.4% |
SWK's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $3.7B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.6% | +8.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +12 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2% | -1.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.2% | +2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 0.9% | -9.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7% | -8.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.4% | -4.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 3.4% | +5.5 points |
SWK's operating margin was 9.6% last quarter, up 8.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
SWK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $585M | +277% |
| Q2 2026 | $698.2M | +418% |
| Q1 2026 | -$447.3M | +$37.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $882.9M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $155.3M | -22% |
| Q2 2025 | $134.7M | -72% |
| Q1 2025 | -$485M | +$11.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $564.6M | -13% |
SWK has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
SWK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.3% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | -2.2% | -3.3M shares |
| 3 years | -1.3% | -1.9M shares |
| 5 years | -10% | -16.7M shares |
| Available history | -1.3% | -1.9M shares |
SWK has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $250.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $252.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $15.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $5.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $2.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $800,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $11.7M |
| Q1 2024 | $6.3M |
SWK spent $524M buying back its own shares over the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over SWK on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
SWK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 8.4x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 9.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.9x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.4x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 3.5x | Elevated |
SWK's net debt is about 2.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 9.2 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
SWK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 70.0 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 81.3 | Overbought |
SWK's weekly RSI is 70 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 81 (overbought).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
SWK PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | SWK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20x | 24x | 16% below |
| PE % | 43 | 58 | 15 pts below |
SWK has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
SWK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $99.3 | 14% above |
| 20 week MA | $96.5 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $85.9 | 32% above |
| 100 week MA | $79.6 | 42% above |
| 200 week MA | $84.8 | 33% above |
SWK has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
SWK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $165.9 | $179.9 | +8.5% |
| 2021 | $179.9 | $182.2 | +1.3% |
| 2022 | $182.2 | $73.9 | -59% |
| 2023 | $73.9 | $98.1 | +33% |
| 2024 | $98.1 | $80.6 | -18% |
| 2025 | $80.6 | $75.4 | -6.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $75.4 | $113.0 | +50% |
SWK has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.