CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over SWBI overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
SWBI
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.
SWBI offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
SWBI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
SWBI's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over SWBI in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
SWBI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 4.3x | $2.38 | -85% |
| Fair | 17x | $9.35 | -40% |
| Current | 28x | $15.57 | — |
| Forward | 28x | $15.57 | — |
| Expensive | 36x | $19.91 | +28% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SWBI's PE is in its expensive range at 28.3x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 27.8x.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over SWBI on the outlook, with more favorable valuation expectations.
SWBI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for SWBI, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
SWBI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.56 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.55 | +104% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.41 | +37% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.26 | -60% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.22 | -72% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.27 | -64% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.30 | -65% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.65 | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.78 | +22% |
SWBI's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.55 over the past year, against $5.39 in late 2021.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over SWBI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over SWBI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SWBI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.6M | +32% |
| Q2 2026 | $178.4M | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $135.7M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $124.7M | -3.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $85.1M | -3.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $140.8M | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $115.9M | -16% |
| Q4 2024 | $129.7M | +3.8% |
SWBI's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $113M last quarter, up 32% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.8% | +7.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5% | +1.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.3% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -3.5% | -1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 10% | -5.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6% | -4.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.4% | +2.4 points |
SWBI's operating margin was 3.8% last quarter, up 7.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
SWBI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$20.8M | -$8.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $69.7M | +108% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.8M | +$33M |
| Q4 2025 | $16.3M | +$27M |
| Q3 2025 | -$12.4M | +$23.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $33.5M | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | -$16.1M | -325% |
| Q4 2024 | -$10.7M | +$27.1M |
SWBI has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over SWBI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
SWBI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.1% | +494K shares |
| 1 year | +2.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -690K shares |
| 5 years | -18% | -10.2M shares |
| Available history | -18% | -9.9M shares |
SWBI has 45M diluted shares, up 2.4% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $2.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $9.8M |
| Q3 2024 | $12.9M |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over SWBI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
SWBI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
SWBI has more cash than debt.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
SWBI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 64.3 | Neutral |
SWBI's weekly RSI is 61 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 64 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over SWBI on valuation relative to its sector.
SWBI PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | SWBI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 24x | 18% above |
| PE % | 71 | 58 | 13 pts above |
SWBI is trading at 28x earnings, a 18% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
SWBI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $14.2 | 9.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $14.2 | 9.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $13.6 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $11.5 | 35% above |
| 200 week MA | $12.5 | 24% above |
SWBI has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
SWBI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $7.08 | $18.0 | +154% |
| 2021 | $18.0 | $17.6 | -2.3% |
| 2022 | $17.6 | $8.72 | -50% |
| 2023 | $8.72 | $13.6 | +56% |
| 2024 | $13.6 | $9.94 | -27% |
| 2025 | $9.94 | $9.99 | +0.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $9.99 | $15.6 | +56% |
SWBI has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.